The Chicago Cubs, Joe Maddon and Elevated Expectations

The Chicago Cubs won 73 games this past season; only six teams fared worse. And yet, this was a marketable improvement. The Cubs won 66 games in 2013 and 61 in 2012, the first time the team lost more than 100 games since 1966. They’ve made the playoffs six times since 1945, the black cat still chuckling from its grave at the North Side’s extensive ineptitude.

But a team this putrid has a direct avenue to reverse its fortunes: the amateur draft. Now selecting from high school and college players can be a crapshoot, but studies have shown that drafting early often leads to tangible results. Sure enough, of the Cubs’ ten first round picks since 2008, three have already seen major league action (Andrew Cashner, Brett Jackson and Javier Baez), while two others (Albert Almora and Kris Bryant) should be accruing service time by the end of 2015.

Drafting high doesn’t necessarily translate into success, since it requires deft leadership and ability. Under former general manager Jim Hendry, the Cubs had some success — Cashner, who was traded for current first baseman Anthony Rizzo, was selected by Hendry in 2008 and Baez was taken in 2011, a month before Hendry was fired — but high profile signings failed to deliver the first championship in Wrigley Field’s existence.

New owners hired Theo Epstein, the wunderkind who gets credit for breaking the long-running curse befalling the Boston Red Sox, to do the same for the Cubs. Along with Jed Hoyer, Epstein emphasized prioritizing drafting and developing hitters rather than pitchers, believing that lower (comparative) volatility and reduced injury rates would lead to more desirable assets and better output. Looking at the Cubs’ 40-man roster further details that plan.

Of the 22 pitchers listed on the 40-man roster, the Cubs drafted none of them in the first round (actually the first five rounds), opting for reclamation projections like Jake Arieta, Felix Doubront and Jacob Turner. That’s not to say they haven’t drafted any pitchers — Epstein selected Pierce Johnson with the 43rd overall pick in 2012, his first year at the helm. Still, only three of the 22 pitchers currently on the roster were drafted by Chicago.

Javier Baez is the only Cub position player to have been drafted by the team in the first round and one of two to be drafted in the first five rounds. The organization has scouted Latin America heavily and five Latin-born hitters are on the 40-man roster. But it’s what’s yet to come that has Cubs fans extremely excited.

Prizing hitters over pitchers helped the Cubs acquire shortstop prospect Addison Russell from the Oakland As in July, dealing away Jeff Samardzija, who at the time was the Cubs’ best pitcher. Bringing Russell into the fold meant the Cubs now employ three players — Starlin Castro, Baez and Russell — who are at least serviceable defensively to play shortstop in the major leagues. The front office could look to deal one of the three to fill a position of weakness — catcher, starting pitcher — or they could attempt to move one or two off the position permanently, likely to second and/or third base. When shortstop is a position of organizational depth, everything else comes easier.

In addition to the SS bonanza, the Cubs have the #1 rated prospect in baseball in third baseman Kris Bryant, a power-hitting lanky 22-year-old who could one day challenge for the home run title. Add in Jorge Soler, a Cuban prodigy, and Anthony Rizzo, and the Cubs could field the following lineup as early as next September (if everything breaks right):

C – Wellington Castillo

1B – Anthony Rizzo

2B – Javier Baez

SS – Addison Russell

3B – Kris Bryant

LF – Starlin Castro

CF – Arismendy Alcantara

RF – Jorge Soler

Of those nine, Castillo will be the oldest at 28, while none of the others will be older than 25. This, in and of itself, is incredible. The type of young talent this team possesses — as rated and scouted by independent arbiters — not only crowns the Cubs as having the best farm system in baseball, but a worthy challenger to any other MLB club…in two or three years.

The problem with having such a young team is that there will be growing pains. Castro posted a 0.1 WAR (according to Fangraphs.com) in 2013 before rebounding this season. Rizzo finally broke through this year after two middling seasons. While Baez supplied the power in his brief 52-game audition this season, he posted negative offensive and defensive values and struck out more than 40% of the time, the only player to “achieve” that feat (minimum 200 plate appearances). Potential doesn’t always translate to success, and this rings especially true for the Cubs, who watched Corey Patterson and Felix Pie flame out (Pie finished with negative WAR for his career).

Looking at the above lineup, only three of those players — Castillo, Rizzo and Castro — have more than a year of MLB service time, meaning that the growing pains will be widespread and frequent. A pitching staff led by Arieta — who shows immense potential but has only succeeded at this level once — could go up in flames. The ghost of Edwin Jackson, still owed $26 million for the next two years, could return someone like BJ Upton, whose own albatross contract is one of the few that dwarfs Jackson’s. The Cubs’ marketable improvement on the mound could be a harbinger of things to come — the WAR attributed to the Cubs’ starting pitchers has climbed from 24th out of 30 teams in 2012 to 8th in 2014 — but another high-end starter is likely needed.

Herein lies the central issue at hand with the Chicago Cubs. The hitters may not yet be ready, but they’re all likely to be members of the major league club for many years to come. Of the above referenced nine, all are signed through 2018 except Castillo, who’s eligible for free agency after 2017. Even just a two or three-win season from Soler in 2015 would vault him — and his steal of a contract — into one of the ten most valuable players who could conceivably be traded. And yet, in large part due to their salary structure, the Cubs may not even need to make a major trade.

Both Max Scherzer and Jon Lester are free agents this winter. Each posted 5+ WAR seasons this year and were third and ninth respectively in combined WAR over the past three seasons. Both pitchers will be 30 heading into the 2015 season and have shown fastball velocity declines recently. Neither pitcher may be an ace at the end of their next contract, but both would be worthwhile targets for the Cubs, a big market team that spent like a small market one in 2014, with total player payroll in the bottom third of the league (near $90 million). Add in Russell Martin — an above average catcher and easily the best one available in free agency — and the Cubs could theoretically win 85-90 games next season. They’d be ahead of schedule — albeit only because the schedule was pushed back a bit.

If the Kansas City Royals — and to a lesser extent the second wildcard — proved anything, it’s that the window for winning may arrive at any moment. The window for sustained success is different, but the Cubs could theoretically be opening both in 2015. While free agency hasn’t even started, the Cubs have signaled that they’re gunning for a playoff spot in 2015 and all the expectations that come along with that.

On Monday, the Cubs will announce the hiring of Joe Maddon, one of the most respected and forward-thinking managers in baseball as the sixth Cubs manager in the past eight seasons. The team fired current manager Rick Renteria after just one season, opting for the obvious managerial improvement at the expense of Renteria’s feelings and the brief public relations hit. Maddon brings a sabermetrician-approved pedigree and willingness to innovate, two elements that should improve both the win-loss record and bottom line. However, Renteria was hired for his ability to help the younger and Latino players in the organization, a job at which he succeeded. Starlin Castro has emerged from the doldrums of 2013 to return to his All Star performance while Anthony Rizzo led all first basemen in WAR this season.

There are two minor issues with the move. The first being that simply put, we don’t know how to evaluate managerial performance. Outside of second-guessing lineup decisions and bullpen management, managers tend to be graded on their win-loss record. Mike Matheny is probably not a good manager, but he made it to the World Series last year. There are simply too many intangibles and behind-the-scenes actions that are unquantifiable. It is assumed that Maddon will be an upgrade over Renteria, but no one knows for sure. Even if he is, the margins are so low that it may lead to one or two extra wins. Yes, these wins will likely be extremely important given where the Cubs project to be next season. However, Emilio Bonifacio was worth 1.9 WAR this year, it’s not a major swing.

The other potential problem is that this moves the Cubs’ win expectancy up a full season (or even two). Aggressive free agent acquisitions — almost a must now that Maddon’s the manager — could help the team in 2015, but if these signings turn into busts, the team will be hamstrung. The Los Angeles Angels have little room to add free agents this offseason after giving more than $350 million to Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton after the 2011 and 2012 seasons. This year, they combined for 4.4 WAR. Anthony Rizzo posted 5.6 WAR.

The history of pitchers as they enter their 30s doesn’t bode well for the long-term prognosis of a Lester or Scherzer signing. The same goes for Martin, who will be 32 on Opening Day 2015. While there’s no salary cap in baseball — MLB uses a luxury tax and revenue sharing — owner Tom Ricketts may opt to keep payroll lower, at least until a new television deal can be struck in 2019 or the issue with visibility for the rooftop owners is resolved. Adding one marquee free agent may be all Epstein is allowed to do, and with an emphasis placed  on 2015 given the Maddon signing, he may misfire.

The Royals also mortgaged at least part of their future to enter “win-now” mode, trading away the top prospect in baseball in Wil Myers for James Shields and Wade Davis before the 2013 season. The trade has worked out well in the short-term — though most of that value comes from Davis — but it could be a major factor if Kansas City misses the playoffs next year. If the Cubs remain in contention into July, Epstein and Hoyer may opt to trade away a talent like Russell or Baez for a veteran whose usefulness may not extend past 2015.

Signing Maddon is likely a great move, so long as the organization remains steadfast to its goal of long-term sustainability. Regardless, it should be a fun season on the North Side once April rolls around.

 

Bob Ryan, WAR and Trusting the Storytellers

Columnist Bob Ryan wrote a critique of advanced metrics in baseball this week in the Boston Globe, checking off virtually every common complaint induced by the rise of sabermetrics. Elements of his stance are certainly valid, as the divide between casual observer and analytical quant remains significant. For better or worse, intentionally or unintentionally, writers have shown difficulty in incorporating advanced statistics into their reporting in an informative, charismatic way that doesn’t detract from their intended narrative.

However, managing editor of Fangraphs.com, Dave Cameron, offered a rebuttal to Ryan’s piece and touched on a fundamental element surrounding the very nature of the job: the burden of trust. Cameron pointed out that casual fans care about Home Runs and RBIs because sportswriters emphasized those numbers. They understand that a batting average above .300 usually indicates an above-average hitter because journalists have spent decades telling them this is important. As more advanced metrics have been created and tested, savvy individuals (or at least those interested in a deeper understanding of baseball) have begun embracing them. We’ve discovered that RBIs are fairly contextual and rarely provide enough useful information about that particular hitter. A stat like wRC+ on the other hand, measures an individual’s runs created and factors in ballpark, run environment and league. It’s a fairly simple metric to understand, since it’s a simple rate: anyone with a wRC+ above 100 is an above average run creator.

You don’t need to know advanced math or study the intricate details to understand the ins and outs of baseball. You just have to be willing to learn, to trust that these new numbers do a better job of explaining what is happening than the old ones. Old baseball journalists – many of whom have lost the desire to learn – have derided the analytics movement as a fun-killing, destructive endeavor that wants to quantify every last morsel of the game. Not only is this blatantly false, but it misconstrues the very notion of analytics. The goal isn’t to quantify everything, it’s to examine what we know and what we can measure in order to predict the future. If our estimates suggest a negative outcome, we can make the necessary changes to augment that reality. Anyone who has studied advanced metrics in sports understands that luck is the driving force in most outcomes, but over the course of months and seasons and decades, the performance tends to seep through.

In his piece, Ryan also returned to the scene of the sportswriters versus sabermetricians war of 2012, when Miguel Cabrera defeated Mike Trout in the MVP race, despite Trout having a greater WAR. In a “stunning” development, sportswriters not only decreed that WAR was flawed, but that if the goal of analytics was to quantify a player’s value in a single, measurable statistic, it would likely miss the importance of easily-digestible filler like “grit” and “hustle”. The Will to Win at least exists…as an inverse relationship between the Chicago White Sox’ success and Ken Harrelson’s dickishness.

But WAR isn’t a catch-all statistic. It shouldn’t be used as the end point, it should be the basis off which to jump. Using Fangraphs’ methodology, the top five hitters in WAR as of today are Troy Tulowitzki, Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Trout, Yasiel Puig and Josh Donaldson. This makes sense, as Tulowitzki is threatening the best 50-game start to a season in MLB history. All five have a wRC+ of 142 or better (all are 42+% better than league average) and all five are slugging at least .500. Columnists have already written lengthy diatribes on these five because they’ve been in the upper echelon for at least a year now.

Looking further down the leaderboard, two names jump out. Seth Smith, a 31-year old corner outfielder for the San Diego Padres, is eighth in WAR while Brian Dozier, a late-blooming middle infielder for the Minnesota Twins is 11^th. Without any additional information, we can discern that these two are, at least for the time being, pretty good. But we don’t know why or how or if this success is sustainable.

Bryan LaHair, a journeyman prospect was offered a starting spot on the 2012 Chicago Cubs, hit 10 Home Runs in the first two months of the season and made the All Star team. He was the subject of quite a few gushing columns, with at least one calling him the “best story of the season”. For casual fans, this may have filled them with optimism, that the Cubs found a diamond in the rough who would save baseball on the north side of Chicago. Sabermetricians and scouts alike would have noticed his poor track record, high strikeout numbers, poor defense and good luck and known that the bottom would have fallen out eventually. He hasn’t played in the majors since. He finished the 2012 season with 0.4 WAR, barely in the top 200 of position players with at least 350 at bats.

With players like Dozier and Smith, we can use WAR and advanced metrics to examine their pasts, present and futures. Smith likely won’t hit .333 for the season, but he’s striking out less, walking more and showing immense power. Even if the results are lucky, the skills have improved. Writers shouldn’t overgeneralize or deal in absolutes, but examining Smith’s performance compared to his past would allow for a discussion on what he’s doing well. We as fans learn something while writers still get to spin their yarn.

Ultimately, the numbers (or better versions of these numbers) will seep further and further into the public consciousness until they can no longer be ignored. MLB itself has pushed for player mapping (installing cameras in three parks so far to measure just about everything that happens on the field). This type of data collection should foster curiosity and excitement that idea that we can learn more about how this game works, making our viewing experience better, our discussions on the futures of our favorite teams more applicable and allows the journalists to examine exactly how the best players perform so well. We should embrace analytics because, in fact, they make the game better. There’s still 25 guys on the roster, 8 playing defense and one on the mound. Only now we have a better idea if they’re good enough to win.

Are the Milwaukee Brewers This Year’s 2013 Boston Red Sox?

The 2011 Boston Red Sox remain one of the best examples of the media’s role in the fragility of organizational baseball. The Red Sox, one of the best teams in the sport for most of the season, sustained a September swoon that knocked them from World Series contenders to October vacationers.

If the slide had occurred in June, articles would have followed depicting the team’s resilience, the “they’ve been here before” mantra that underscores every bottom-to-top resurgent and underdog story imaginable. Instead, it literally ended their season, angering fans who demanded answers and exciting journalists who sought to find them.

From beer and fried chicken to pill addiction, scoops and sources dominated October baseball in Boston. Eventually, all that remained were the players. The two-time World Series-winning manager, Terry Francona, was dismissed, while general manager Theo Epstein opted for a new (and more difficult challenge) resurrecting the immortally cursed Chicago Cubs. Bobby Valentine replaced Francona with pomp, circumstance and the worst mismanagement since Don Baylor joined the Cubs. He effectively alienated his players, bosses and ownership, the holy triumvirate that pushed him out less than a year later.

From 2002 through 2011, the Red Sox finished above .500 every year, won 90 or more games in eight of the ten seasons (including 2011) and won two World Series. In 2012, the year of the Valentine, the team finished below .500 for the first time since 1997 with a record of 69-93.

However, Boston’s true talent did not correspond with just 69 wins. Injuries and clubhouse turmoil (largely the former, somewhat the latter), were responsible for the precipitous decline into the cellar of the American League East. A new manager – but most importantly better health – would likely result in a rebound back toward respectability. But the Red Sox exceeded even their own most optimistic expectations.

The 2013 Red Sox won 97 games (the most since 2004) en route to another World Series victory. Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester combined for 16.7 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in 2013, after netting only 12 combined in 2012. Newly acquired Shane Victorino and Mike Napoli added 9.5 between them. That’s more than 14 wins better than 12 in just these six players, many of whom, save for Ortiz perhaps, were expected to contribute at or near this level entering the season.

With that in mind, is there a team in 2013 that experienced what the Red Sox went through in 2012? A team decimated by injuries or underperformance that could rebound in 2014 and challenge for the largest single-season turnaround in baseball history?

The Milwaukee Brewers present themselves as exhibit A.

At 14-5 through Sunday, the Brewers lead the National League Central by three games over the St. Louis Cardinals due to their best 19-game start since 1987 (when they rattled off a 17-2 mark). They have one of the best 10 all-around position players in baseball (Carlos Gomez) and another in Ryan Braun who hopes to return to that level.

It should be noted here – before the bloviating truly begins – that 19 games have little impact on the entirety of the baseball season. It’s less than 12% of the 162-game slog that kills the weak and easily-fatigued. The Los Angeles Dodgers, a much better team than the Brewers on paper, went 42-8 over a stretch last season. They went 50-62 in the remaining games. Small sample sizes have destroyed clichéd narratives and hot starts before, but the Brewers actually have a legitimate chance at improving on their 74-88 mark from 2013.

The doldrums of 2013 weren’t necessarily evident from the beginning. The team’s first 19 games: 11-8. However, a weak pitching staff led by the remains of Yovani Gallardo’s fastball didn’t hold up. Braun missed a month due to a hand injury, though its effects plagued him all year. His nine home runs in 61 games are easily the lowest of his career, even when adjusted to a full season’s worth of at-bats.

Eleven different pitchers started at least two games for the Brewers in 2013. Only two of them – Kyle Lohse and Tyler Thornburg finished with ERAs below 3.50. On July 21, he Brewers beat the Miami Marlins by a score of 1-0 to improve their record to 41-56, second worst in the National League.  And then what was left of their season fell apart.

Braun was subsequently suspended for the remainder of the season for violating the league’s drug policy (and for being caught lying about failing it the first time). Rather than appeal, Braun wisely took his punishment, using the time to rehab his digits amid a lost season for his team. The pitching remained lackluster and the hitting – outside of Gomez and a great 80 games from Jean Segura – was inept as well. The Brewers only had three players – and no pitchers – finish with more than 3.0 WAR in 2013. The Red Sox, by comparison, had 11.

Entering 2014, the front office attempted to rectify the issues that plagued the team in 2013. Milwaukee signed Matt Garza to a four-year/$50 million contract, a great value for the organization since it doesn’t also cost the team a first round draft pick (like Lohse did the year prior). Mark Reynolds and his strikeouts joined the Brewers as a first baseman. A healthy Braun would be like a free-agent signing as well given his poor performance in 2013, assuming he was fully healthy (the steroid effect has been difficult to prove and/or quantify). The team was projected to win between 78 and 84 wins this year.

And so far, 84 may be just about right. In 17 games Braun has accumulated 0.8 WAR, more than 50% of what he totaled last year in 61 games. He picked up 0.5 in just two games, after crushing home runs against the Pittsburgh Pirates over the weekend. He may not ever be an asset in the field, but his hitting could return him to the upper echelon of players.

Gomez has set out to prove that 2013 wasn’t a fluke and his numbers — .312/.365/.610 with five home runs and plus-plus defense – confirm that he’s the best player on the team. Aramis Ramirez – who missed 70 games last season – is hitting .352/.403/.465 – respectable, but the low slugging percentage may remain low as he approaches his 36^th birthday. Reynolds has hit five home runs…and struck out 20 times, fourth highest in baseball for hitters with 50 or more plate appearances.

The pitching, so difficult to judge this early in the season, could challenge for the second best in the division. Gallardo may have learned how to pitch with his diminished velocity. Lohse has shown signs of having fundamentally fixed something during his 2011 season with the Cardinals – he’s posted a 3.17 ERA over the past 625 innings since the beginning of 2011. Francisco Rodriguez has been remarkable and the back end of the rotation – Marco Estrada and Wily Peralta – should be at least mediocre, with the potential for improvement if the strikeouts tick higher.

Still, there’s a reason this team wasn’t projected to challenge the Cardinals for the division crown. First base – even with hack-a-homer Reynolds – is an area of weakness. Reynolds will likely hit .230 with 25-30 home runs, but he’s not a strong defender and has little chance of outperforming expectations. The second base platoon of Rickie Weeks and Scooter Gennett may provide a negative WAR this year, especially if Gennett doesn’t walk or hit for power. Weeks has only started once in the past week – and probably shouldn’t play much in general – a sad decline for a top-10 second baseman just three seasons ago.

Then there’s Jean Segura. An All-Star last year after hitting .325 in the first half last year with 11 home runs and 27 steals, he hit just .241 with no power in the second half. He’s followed that up with a .233/.263/.301 that makes Starlin Castro look like Troy Tulowitzki. He has the fourth worst walk rate in baseball (among qualified batters) and his .274 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), suggests some unluckiness, but not enough to expect a return to his All Star start.

The pitching will ultimately determine if this team beats out the Pirates and Cincinnati Reds this year (they’ll definitely top the Cubs). Milwaukee finished 28^th in pitcher WAR last year with 6.6, equivalent to Clayton Kershaw (by himself). They’ve already accumulated 2.7 alone in April and the pedigree of Garza, Gallardo, Rodriguez and Lohse could lead to something in the vicinity of 17 WAR, which would have been the 9^th best in 2013). As long as Jonathan Lucroy continues to be their battery mate – he’s arguably the best pitch framer in baseball, an ability to deceive umpires into favorably awarding strikes that has not yet been captured adequately by any metric – the pitching staff has a chance to be respectable.

Still, with holes in right field – Khris Davis has one home run after getting extremely lucky on fly balls leaving the yard last season – shortstop, second base and arguably first, the Brewers are extremely susceptible to injuries. A putrid farm system means the team has little assistance in replacing an injured player or trading for an adequate replacement, a luxury the Cardinals have in spades.

These wins are banked, but a .500 team on a three-week hot stretch should only reasonably expect a four or five win improvement over the course of the year. Given the pedigree of the front end of the rotation (and Peralta’s potential improvement with age), the Milwaukee Brewers could challenge for a Wild Card spot with the Pirates, San Francisco Giants and Atlanta Braves (not to mention the three projected division winners if they underperform or sustain injuries). Their likely inability to make a trade by the July 31 deadline could hamper them, as the Red Sox were able to acquire Matt Thornton and Jake Peavy last year. Since the Brewers have little in the pipeline, they need to either win now, or look to aggressively bottom out and rebuild. With a 14-5 start, there’s no likelihood the former will happen.

The Milwaukee Brewers are not the 2013 Boston Red Sox, but they have a chance to be similar. All it takes is some good fortune and some unexpected surplus value to right the ship. Oh, and having arguably two of the ten best players in the National League certainly doesn’t hurt.

Fantasy Surprise Round II: 10 Starting Pitcher Sleepers for 2014

When undergoing this hypothetical, predictive experiment last year, the results were rather mixed. Choosing Max Scherzer (2013 American League Cy Young Award winner) and Yu Darvish (runner up) was counterbalanced by permitting Edwin Jackson and Ricky Romero to occupy space in the same list. Overall, the process was beneficial — both selfishly and educationally — so it returns for a second round, with at least one player making a reappearance.

The major difference is that instead of using the MLB.com rankings (which coincided with a failed bid to be a fantasy baseball writer on the site in question), the ESPN.com rankings appear in the 2014 version. The list is constructed to highlight players from all segments and tiers of pitchers, from potential aces to the mid-level and forgotten pools of talent. Also, despite the rise in youth dominating the sport, rookies will be kept off this list, as will players returning from missing most (if not all) of the 2013 season. Without further ado, onto the list:

1. CHRIS SALE, CHICAGO WHITE SOX, (Ranked 9th amongst starting pitchers, 39th overall, according to ESPN)

Of the ten best pitchers in 2013 ranked by Wins Above Replacement, Sale finished with the second fewest wins (11 – only Matt Harvey had fewer). Pitcher wins overrate run support and skew against pitchers on bad teams (the White Sox won 63 games, third fewest in baseball), but they do play an important role in fantasy baseball.

In 2012, two of the top twenty pitchers by WAR, Cliff Lee and Anibal Sanchez, finished with 6 and 9 wins, respectively. Last year, they each won 14 games. While the White Sox may not challenge for a playoff spot, they’re projected to win between 72-80 games, with Sale a likely benefactor of the better team behind him.

As for Sale’s improvement as a pitcher, figuring out how to get right-handed batters out will be key. His stats suffered slightly against righties compared to 2012, as he allowed more home runs and a worse weighted on-base percentage. The fact that he often pitches in US Cellular Field doesn’t exactly help in this regard — 3.6% of batters he faced in 2013 hit home runs off him at home, while just 1.8% put the ball over the fence in their own home parks. Of anyone on this list, Sale is the most likely to challenge for a Cy Young Award in 2014, but continued improvement and better home run luck will be keys to his success.

2. MATT CAIN, SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (17th among pitchers, 75th overall)

Out of all the pitchers on this list, Cain’s potential to rebound may be the lowest. There are plenty of factors that suggest a positive regression in 2014 — an unusually high home-run-per-fly-ball rate, injury concerns that have dissipated, and the fact that from 2006 through 2012, he accumulated 26.8 WAR, good for ninth best in baseball. But Cain will turn 30 in October and has logged more than 1700 innings since arriving in the majors in 2005. Last year was the first time he failed to top 200 innings since 2006.

Cain’s struggles — if not injury related — come from an odd choice in pitch selection and likely hitter familiarity. Batters connected on almost 90% of all pitches swung at in the strike zone against Cain in 2013, the worst mark of his career. While Adam Wainwright finished with a similar number, the players ahead of Cain on the list include “superstars” such as Joe Saunders and Jeremy Guthrie. Over the past three years, Cain has stopped using his changeup as much, opting for a slider  instead. The results — albeit in small samples of course — have been mixed at best. Given his skill and the fact that he isn’t an overpowering pitcher whose potential diminishing velocity with age would likely cause problems, he has a great chance to return to being a top 10-15 pitcher in the majors.

3. JEFF SAMARDZIJA, CHICAGO CUBS (33rd among pitchers, 131st overall)

A quick primer on one of the more important sabermetric statistics: FIP. It stands for Fielder Independent Pitching and it attempts to calculate a pitcher’s worth by subtracting the defense around him, specifically focusing on home runs, walks and strikeouts. Is it flawless? No, but no single statistic tells a complete story. For a pitcher like Samardzija who has posted lower/better FIPs than ERAs in each of the past two seasons, it helps illustrate both the awfulness of the Cubs’ defense behind him as well as his likelihood to post better numbers going forward.

While the Cubs certainly didn’t upgrade their defense this winter, Samardzija has a great chance to have the best season of his career. Despite his age (29), Samardzija has only accumulated 558 innings pitched and is entering his third — magical fantasy trope alert — as a starter. He suffered last season from one of the ten worsts BABIPs in the majors, and fatigued down the stretch after reaching 200 innings pitched for the first time in his career. He allowed home runs on approximately 13.3% of all fly balls, the seventh highest rate in baseball. From 2011 to 2013, only one pitcher repeated their “top-ten” performance in this statistic, and Ian Kennedy now gets to call Petco Park home. While a myriad of factors go into any potential trade, it should be noted that if Samardzija doesn’t come to terms on a long-term deal with the Cubs, he may find himself in a slightly better pitchers’ park than the Friendly Confines.

4. CC SABATHIA, NEW YORK YANKEES (39th among pitchers, 153rd overall)

While it was mentioned above that Matt Cain was 9th in pitcher WAR from 2006 through 2012, CC Sabathia was tied for first (with Roy Halladay) at 41.6 wins above replacement. For his career Sabathia has accumulated 61.5 WAR and while he’s unlikely to reach 300 wins (he turns 34 in July and has 205 victories), he has a decent chance to make the Hall of Fame.

Last year was statistically the worst season of Sabathia’s career. His ERA settled near 5, his strikeout rate dipped below eight batters per nine innings and he kept runners on base at an abysmally low clip. He somehow still logged 211 innings, the seventh consecutive season he’s thrown more than 200. He’s the only pitcher to throw at least 1,600 innings since 2007 (Justin Verlander is at 1,574). The results, when combined with his age, indicate a pitcher forced to establish better command in place of velocity. According to Brooks Baseball, Sabathia averaged 94.2 miles per hour on his fastball in 2008. In 2012, that dropped to 92.4 mph and fell to 91.3 mph in 2013. This has allowed hitters to hold off on his off-speed pitches — batters swung at just 30.6% of pitches outside the strike zone against Sabathia, the lowest mark in four years. Combine that with the highest outside-the-zone contact rate allowed of his career, and it’s easy to see why Sabathia faltered.

Evidence suggests that the 94 mph fastball will never return, but Sabathia can still be an above average pitcher and better than someone like Matt Moore, who’s 32nd on the ESPN list. He reported to camp in The Best Shape of His Life (TM, Keith Law), and likely understands the adjustments he has to make to be better than his 4.78 ERA and 4.10 FIP. If his BABIP and strand rate normalize even slightly, Sabathia should have little trouble returning to the 4.6 WAR pitcher he was in 2012.

5. JUSTIN MASTERSON, CLEVELAND INDIANS (51st among pitchers, 194th overall)

Rumors abounded this week that Masterson, a free agent after this upcoming season, would be willing to resign with the Cleveland Indians on a two- or three-year deal worth between $40 and $60 million. The initial reaction was probably disbelief, that someone like Masterson could be worth more than any free agent pitcher in 2013 (excluding Tanaka if the posting fee is included in his contract with the New York Yankees). Taking a closer look, however, and it’s not hard to see why the Indians would be wise to lock up Masterson for something like a 3-year/$50 million deal.

Given his sinker-focused repertoire, it should come as no surprise that Masterson finished second overall in ground ball percentage (of balls in play, of course), trailing only another member of this list. Because of that, he allowed just 13 home runs in 2013 and hasn’t allowed more than 18 in a single season. Joe Blanton may have given up 18 in a game or two last year. A reliance on ground ball outs of course likely contributes to a higher BABIP over time, and a .24 point decrease from 2012 to 2013 suggests a potentially treacherous 2014 campaign, but Masterson’s cause for optimism comes in the form of strikeouts.

After never averaging more than 8.3 strikeouts per nine (or 159 in a single season), Masterson posted a 9.1 mark in 2013, translating to 195 punch outs, 17th best in baseball. The jump likely stems from an increase in slider usage, which jumped by nearly 5% better than his career average. The results show it was more effective than it had been in the past, resulting in batters swinging through it more than 42% of the time. It was more effective against left-handed hitters than it had been in the past — Masterson struck out 19% of lefties in 2013, better than his career mark of about 14%. Continued mastery of the pitch could go a long way into keeping lefties honest and keeping the ball in the park.

Much will be made about the likely switch from Carlos Santana to Yan Gomes behind the plate in 2014, but it’s difficult to truly quantify the impact of a catcher’s ability to influence umpires by “framing” pitches. The metrics — again, in their infancy stages — do show that Santana was basically a DH with a catcher’s mask — so a switch could certainly help Masterson and Corey Kluber (who will appear later on this list), but it’s impossible to quantify the difference and foolish to think a single season’s worth of data will skew a pitcher’s apparent control drastically.

6. RICK PORCELLO, DETROIT TIGERS (64th among pitchers, 224th overall)

While Masterson was second in ground ball percentage, Porcello finished first in 2013, after ending the previous two campaigns in 11th and 16th place, respectively. Because if this, Porcello’s ERA depends greatly on the percentage of ground balls that turn into hits. His BABIP has never settled below .307 in his major league carrier; it was the seventh highest in baseball last season. His ERA will likely always finish higher than his FIP — 4.32 to 3.53 in 2013 — though both have declined in each of his four big league seasons.

Going in 2014, two major factors suggest Porcello could be in line for a breakout year. His strikeout rate has ticked higher, from 4.7 batters per nine innings in 2010 to 7.2 in 2013. He threw his curveball more often in 2013 than in the previous three years combined and generated more swings and misses with it. Since he doesn’t throw terribly hard, he’ll need to continue seeing good results from his offspeed offerings to continue his improvement. It likely helps that the infield defense should be better in 2014 as well. Jose Iglesias, one of the best defensive players in baseball, replaces Jhonny Peralta at shortstop while trading Prince Fielder to the Texas Rangers allows Miguel Cabrera to slide back over to first base. The results may not be great, but if even a few more grounders turn into outs, Porcello may finally post an ERA under 4.

7 . COREY KLUBER, CLEVELAND INDIANS (83rd among pitchers, 305th overall)

The second Indian on this list, Kluber posted strong numbers in his first complete season in the majors. He has four pitches at his disposal, with a hard two-seamer and a changeup that moves faster than his slider. At 147 innings pitched in 2013, he’s not considered a qualified pitcher, but he posted the sixth highest BABIP of all starters with at least 140 innings. This is despite a 45.5% ground ball rate, which suggests a lower BABIP may be in Kluber’s future.

However, the main cause for concern is that fact that no pitcher who threw at least 140 innings allowed more line drives than Kluber. The caveat is that contact falls under one of three classifications — ground ball, fly ball and line drive — which could certainly skew the results and means the data shouldn’t be taken as a single “all-encompassing” explanation. But of the top 30 pitchers classified by line drive rate, Kluber’s .329 BABIP was the highest, but only three other starters posted BABIPs above .320 (and Clayton Kershaw was on this list with a .251 BABIP). This information may mean nothing and Kluber could get pummeled in 2014 when fewer balls fall for hits, but are sequenced to skew his ERA above 5. The point here is that Kluber’s batted ball profile and strikeout-t0-walk ration suggest continued improvement in his age 27 season.

8. EDWIN JACKSON, CHICAGO CUBS (108th among pitchers, 400th overall)

Jackson made this sleeper list last season and then led MLB in losses (18) and posted the fourth worst ERA (4.98). Whoops! The pick made sense at the time. Jackson was coming off a decent season with the Nationals where he posted the highest strikeout rate of his career. His FIP was nearly 20 points lower than his ERA and his walk rate was at a decent level. If he improved just slightly, he could’ve been a top-80 pitcher (he was ranked 93rd by mlb.com before 2013).

Instead, his strikeouts declined, his walks increased, he couldn’t keep runners on base and he pitched in front of what the Cubs called “defense”. He was certainly unlucky — his FIP was more than a run lower than his ERA — but he certainly pitched worse than in 2012. The great thing about being so terrible is that it’s easy to improve. Better luck alone should shave his ERA to 4.50 or better, given his BABIP (.322) and strand rate (63%) were among the worst in the league. From a fantasy perspective, this is purely a value play. Jackson should be better than Joe Kelly (105th) and Kevin Gausman (101st) likely will begin the season in AAA or the bullpen. He may never put it all together, but Jackson can certainly rack up 180 strikeouts with a 4.20 ERA in 2014.

9. TYLER SKAGGS, LOS ANGELES ANGELS (128th amongst pitchers, 470th overall)

Kevin Towers, the general manager of the Arizona Diamondbacks, famously values character seemingly more than any other executive in baseball. He traded Justin Upton for what appeared to be 50 or 60 cents on the dollar and dealt former third overall pick Trevor Bauer in a separate deal after rumors of Bauer’s “poor” attitude leaked to the media. The Diamondbacks weren’t necessarily better because of those trades — they finished 81-81 in 2013. Towers’ decision making returned to the spotlight this offseason, when he dealt Tyler Skaggs in a bid to acquire Mark Trumbo, who specializes at hitting home runs (and hitting little else). Skaggs experienced growing pains in 2013, struggling in seven starts with a 5.12 ERA and 4.86 FIP. He walked batters like Tim Lincecum and gave up home runs like Joe Saunders (yet even worse), but at just 22 there’s plenty of room for improvement.

Moving from Chase Field in Arizona to Angel Stadium in Anaheim should help his gopheritis, as should the reports that he’s fixed his mechanics. He doesn’t have an overpowering fastball, but does have the desired 10 mph difference between it and his changeup. Throw in an above-average curveball, and Skaggs can certainly have a better 2014. Walks will continue to be an issue, but the Angels believe those mechanical adjustments will limit those mistakes as well.

10. EDINSON VOLQUEZ, PITTSBURGH PIRATES (Not Ranked)

Last year, I put Ricky Romero on the list, hoping that he had rediscovered his mechanics and could return to the dominating form he displayed for the Toronto Blue Jays in 2010 and 2011. He was rated as the 222nd best pitcher by MLB.com and barely cracked the top 500 in the preseason rankings, so it couldn’t get much worse. Except that it did. Romero made two starts for the Blue Jays in 2013, allowed nine runs in 7.1 innings and may never return to the majors. So for another shot in the dark, why not choose the pitcher with the worst ERA in baseball last year?

Volquez was somehow allowed to start 32 times for the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers, posting a 5.71 ERA (next worst was Joe Saunders at 5.26). His strikeouts plunged, his walks — always a problem — remained high and he couldn’t keep any runners on base (his 63.3% strand rate was the second worst in MLB). While leaving San Diego may seem like an omen, Pittsburgh employs one of the best defenses in the majors. Volquez’s .325 BABIP last season may regress towards his lifetime .306 average, which would in turn push his ERA towards his 2013 FIP of 4.24. Having turned 30 halfway through last season, it’s possible that the velocity declines across the board may continue, which would portend a rocky season with the Pirates. However, if he continues on a trend in 2013 to abandon his four-seam fastball in favor of a sinker — which he threw more than any other pitch last season and at the highest frequency in his career — he may have a chance to do what Romero couldn’t in 2013: stay in the rotation.

A (Very) Early Look at MLB in 2014 – 5 Predictions to Keep on the Radar

On a day like today, where the frozen malaise has spread beyond the plains, it seems foolish to discuss baseball. Still, pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training next month (with the Arizona Diamondbacks a mere ten days out) and Opening Day kicks off in two (in Australia, no less).

With that in mind, this is the first in what will likely be a comprehensive 2014 MLB season preview. I hope — as was attempted and half-completed last season — to amass an authoritarian and comprehensive analysis of all 30 teams, complete with breakout and regression candidates, as well as playoff and award predictions.

For now, however, let’s take a quick look at the offseason so far, insofar as its effects on 2014 projections. Baseball writer Clay Davenport released his first projections for the new season over the weekend, listing team records, a breakdown of the various run environments and playoff odds. With that in mind, here are a handful of observations on what will surely be an intense (and lengthy) season.

OBSERVATION 1: The Detroit Tigers Look Like the Favorite

Yes, it’s only January and yes, this is one man’s projection, but it’s hard to argue with the results. Detroit is penciled in at 91 wins, the most in baseball and a shade more than the Tampa Bay Rays and St. Louis Cardinals. To be fair, nine teams won more than 91 games last year, including the Tigers. The projection makes sense: they have the pitching, even without Doug Fister, they have the hitting, even without Prince Fielder, and they play in the American League Central, where beating up on the Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins is second nature.

Detroit has some question marks, just as every other team in the league. Will third base — no longer occupied by one of the greatest hitters of all time in Miguel Cabrera — be a black hole or a source of value? Can Ian Kinsler rebound in a new ballpark after a sub-par 2013? Will the rotation persevere after the loss of Fister, the potential trade of Max Scherzer and the age concerns over Justin Verlander? We’ll know more in the Spring.

OBSERVATION 2: A Potentially Insane Playoff Race in the National League

Projection measures rarely expect large amounts of volatility, unless mitigating circumstances demand such a swing. So it should come as no surprise that the Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals are expected to repeat as National League Western and Central division champs, respectively. However, the Washington Nationals, a favorite of many before last season, could overtake the Atlanta Braves in the East, while the Wild Card races look to be much more exciting than last season.

Only Washington finished within eight games of the Cincinnati Reds for the second Wild Card spot in 2013, and that was due in large part to a September surge after they were all but forgotten. New manager Matt Williams could be worth an extra win or two over Davey Johnson, but more likely a rebound from Bryce Harper and continued strong pitching could make the NL East race even better than their American League counterparts. According to Davenport’s projections, only the Dodgers are expected to give up fewer runs.

OBSERVATION 3: The AL East is a Gauntlet

90, 86, 85, 78 and 77. Those aren’t the modes of the House of Representatives’ IQ scores, but rather the projected wins of the Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles. It should be noted that a lot can chance between now and the start of the season. The Rays could trade their ace David Price. The Blue Jays and Orioles, looking up in the division, could add pieces via free agency, such as Ubaldo Jimenez and Kendrys Morales. The Yankees could sign another pitcher. Regardless, it seems likely that this should be an exciting division that embodies vastly different team-building philosophies.

The Rays (and to a lesser extent the Orioles) play on the fringes and must rely on young, inexpensive talent to produce. The Yankees reverted to the pre-2012 cash cows and acquired expensive upgrades at key positions. The Red Sox, who followed that strategy to a lesser extent last year, reaped the rewards and will now entrust the majority of their up-the-middle coverage to new players. The Blue Jays, another pre-2013 favorite, appears likely to fall victim to the plague that has haunted the team in recent years: pitching. Only the Minnesota Twins and Houston Astros are projected to allow more than Toronto’s 749 runs this season.

OBSERVATION 4: Why Should Anyone Trust Free Agency?

Between the current pay structure for draft picks and the potential television revenue bubble, the free agent pool has become significantly diluted over recent years. Rarely do players either before or in their prime reach free agency and with recent long-term deals not working on the front end (not to mention the havoc they’ll cause down the line), teams are reluctant to commit. That trend may continue in 2014, at least based on these initial projections. Of the teams that signed major free agents (anyone making more than $100 million over the life of their contract), only the Texas Rangers are expected to make the playoffs, with the Yankees falling a few games short. The Seattle Mariners, the team that signed Robinson Cano to a 10-year/$240 million deal, are projected to finish with 83 wins, the same number as the San Diego Padres. Will this prevent a team from giving Max Scherzer $200+ million next offseason if he becomes a free agent? Almost assuredly not.

OBSERVATION 5: Pour Some Out for the Weaklings

As a Chicago Cubs fan, looking at 2014 projections are an exercise in self-inflicted torture. The team only won 66 games last season, but even poorer play by the Miami Marlins and Houston Astros meant the Cubs weren’t considered the worst team in baseball, the biggest laughingstock in an industry run by Bud Selig. Alas, 2014 may be even more cruel. According to Davenport, the Cubs project at an abysmal 67-95, the only team below 70 wins (yes Houston is at 70-92). They’re the only team projected to score fewer than 600 runs, not to mention their expected 25th place finish in runs allowed. Given the likelihood of mid-season trades and the potential for catastrophic injuries, it’s likely that more than just one team will win fewer than 70 games. But for a team with a never-ending five year plan, it seems like another long-suffering season beckons in just a few short weeks. At least it’s not already 2015, or some revisionist history would likely have to take place.