Flirting with Mediocrity: Can the Pittsburgh Pirates Finish Above .500?

Twenty two years of futility will make even the sanest lose their grip on reality. Average becomes great, and great becomes an impossible dream. For the Pittsburgh Pirates, even average has seemed unattainable.

They went 96-66 in 1992, losing in the NLCS to the Atlanta Braves, who in turn fell to the Toronto Blue Jays in the World Series. Since that season, the Pirates have not once finished above .500, let alone returned to the playoffs. They came close in 1997, going 79-83 and again in 2012, finishing with the same record. Pittsburgh was actually 62-46 last season after beating the Arizona Diamondbacks on August 6th, but went 15-37 down the stretch. Their .288 winning percentage in the final 52 games would have put them on pace to win just 47 games; the Houston Astros were the worst team in baseball last season and still won 55 contests. Only one team in the last 40 years has endured an entire season worse than that 52-game Pirates stretch — the 2003 Detroit Tigers went 43-119.

This season, the club is 29-18 after finishing off a sweep of the Chicago Cubs today, the first time they’ve been above .500 on this date since 1992. Even with their hot start, they’re tied with the Cincinnati Reds for second place in the National League Central division and 1.5 games behind the St. Louis Cardinals. If the season ended today, they would make the postseason, the benefactors of a Wild Card spot (and the poor play of the Washington Nationals and everyone in the NL West).

This additional incentive makes for a difficult quandary for the Pirates front office: should the team risk potential long-term success by trading away prospects for a chance to win now? Even more difficult to discern is simply the importance of having a winning record at the season’s end, 82 victories could invigorate a fan base that has suffered more hardship than even the Kansas City Royals (though possibly not the city of Cleveland, Nick Gilbert be damned).

While the MLB Rule 4 draft in early June has consumed the attention of teams’ front offices, the proceeding weeks will shed light on the teams that at least believe they have a chance to make the playoffs, even if underlying metrics suggest otherwise. The few teams planning for 2014 and beyond could trade their most sought after commodities, netting the largest value in return, given the ample competition and scarcity of sellers. The last two seasons, the Pittsburgh Pirates have bought, rather than sold by the July 31 deadline, in hopes of making the postseason, though finishing above .500 in either season would have been considered a more realistic and attainable win.

With the Nationals scuffling, the Pirates have reasonable aspirations at a Wild Card spot now — this of course (unwisely) assumes no crippling injuries — and need only play average baseball to shed twenty years of sub-par baggage.

The schedule may cooperate. Of Pittsburgh’s next 35 games (through the end of June), they play 18 against clubs currently with winning records, including seven against division rival Cincinnati (a team they swept back in April). July is a similar story — 14 of the team’s 27 games are against better-than-average competition, with a four game (in three days) stretch against St. Louis at the end of the month. Both teams could look fundamentally different by that time of course. Oscar Taveras could join his Missouri mates in the majors while Pittsburgh could see Gerrit Cole, the first overall selection in the 2011 MLB draft, throwing strikes in their rotation.

The main question for general manager Neil Huntington and his staff regarding his team’s potential performance this season is the same one he struggled with last year: can this team, with only minor upgrades, stay above .500?

Their success over the first two months of the season have largely been the result of a much-improved pitching staff. As a team, the Pirates have a 3.27 ERA, second best in baseball (behind the rival Cardinals). Last year it was 3.86, 13th in the league. The bullpen has been amazing, boasting a 2.78 ERA (2nd), and they’re tied for the MLB lead in relief strikeouts with the Seattle Mariners. Jason Grilli and Mark Melancon have combined to allow five runs over 45.2 innings with 58 strikeouts.

Pittsburgh shrewdly traded incumbent closer Joel Hanrahan, receiving Melancon in return and opening the door for Grilli. While neither pitcher has the best track record — Grilli has not allowed a home run yet this season while Melancon’s control has been impeccable, though likely unsustainable — even minor regression would keep the bullpen amongst the league’s best.

Behind Burnett, the rotation has promise, especially if Cole can provide a boost later in the season (he’s not ready yet, the command not nearly sharp enough). Francisco Liriano has allowed two runs over his first three starts, striking out 25 in 18 innings. Yes, he’s pitched against the Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets, three teams who make BJ Upton look like a 80 hitter, but he’s only walked six batters.

Wandy Rodriguez has cut his walk rate to the lowest of his career, though batters are hitting more balls in the air against him. Jeff Locke has used smoke and mirrors to go 4-1 with a 2.73 ERA so far, but a scarcity of strikeouts, a plethora of walks and a frighteningly low BABIP suggest impending doom.

The offense has been decent, if not spectacular. Only Starling Marte is hitting above .300, while no player has even 10 home runs. They’re 22nd in runs scored and 23rd in batting average. They’re in the middle of the pack in stolen bases, though have been caught on nine of their 34 attempts.

Of their regular fielders, Marte is easily the early surprise, a 24 year old outfielder who hit .257 in 47 games last season. His anemic walk rate from 2012 has declined further — he’s at 4.3%, 18th lowest in baseball — suggesting that eventually pitchers won’t throw him strikes. He makes a decent amount of contact on pitches outside the zone — his 60% contact rate is average — but not enough to warrant a different approach. He’s already showing signs of regression — going .270/.333/.432 in May versus .327/.395/.477. in April. A 50 point drop in his unsustainably high BABIP would put his average near .280. With some power and good speed, Marte can still set the table for his teammates, but a career year this is not.

The other regulars are well within their normal ranges. Pedro Alvarez provides power, strikeouts, and little else, while Neil Walker has seen his power disappear completely. Russel Martin is having a career year — an example of a great free-agent signing that remains cost-effective — while Garret Jones continues to be slightly above average. Regardless, the Pirates will not finish the season with a winning record unless Andrew McCutchen starts to hit.

McCutchen broke out in 2012, hitting 31 home runs, scoring 107 runs and batting .327. It was supposed to signal the beginning of a storied career, but instead McCutchen has faltered some. He’s hitting .280 this season and has hit only six home runs. His BABIP is nearly 100 points lower than in 2012, and while it may increase, he will be hard pressed to return to it to the .375 mark. If McCutchen can go on a tear — and none of the remaining position players nosedive into a Titanic like collapse — the Pirates have the pitching and offense to at least play mediocre baseball over the next 115 games.

If not, it would make sense for Pittsburgh to jettison some of its more valuable players. AJ Burnett is in the final year of a 5-year/$82.5 million contract (of which the New York Yankees are paying $8.5 million this season for him to pitch elsewhere). While the Pirates will almost assuredly hand him a qualifying offer — a one-year deal worth between $12-$15 million, depending on what the league office decides — he could most likely procure a long-term deal of at least three years in length, giving the team a compensatory pick. At 36, he may decide to remain in Pittsburgh, but a mid-season trade to Baltimore or Cleveland could fetch the Pirates a decent haul, albeit without the draft pick.

Wandy Rodriguez is owed $13.5 million in 2013 and has a player option for $13 million next season (of which the Houston Astros would pay $5.5 million), making him another candidate to be traded. It is unclear whether Wandy would opt out at age 34, though a market where Burnett could be the best pitcher available would certainly pay for Rodriguez’s services. Given the option year, more teams may be willing to trade for Rodriguez instead of Burnett.

Clint Barmes is a decent defensive shortstop who hits about as well as Pedro Martinez, currently. Owed $5.5 million this season in the final year of his deal, he could fetch a similar return the club received for trading slick-fielding shortstop Jack Wilson back in 2009.

Garret Jones, Neil Walker and James McDonald are all quality pieces and most likely in the long-term plans for the team’s success. Each  player makes less than $5 million this season and will be entering their first year of arbitration next season. While it would seem unlikely any of the three were traded this season, the cost-conscious franchise may opt to part with one of them if it nets a top-tier prospect.

Trading any of the aforementioned players could crush the team and the fan base, but such aggressive selling could ensure a bigger and better rebuild. If the front office doesn’t believe its rotation is good enough to contend — even with Cole or a rental — trading Burnett and/or Rodriguez would be smart decisions. Still, the allure of 82 wins, not even the postseason, would make such decisions emotionally devastating, if not responsible ones.

Currently, Baseball Prospectus gives the Pirates a 47% chance to make the playoffs, higher than the 43% given to San Fransico and the 40% given to Washington. The idea of AJ Burnett starting a one-game playoff would have been frightening even last season, but he’s currently 2nd in strikeouts per nine innings, 15th in WAR (according to Fangraphs) and 17th in ERA.

If Pittsburgh survives June and remains above .500 at the All Star Break, it would make sense to roll the dice for the third consecutive season. Acquiring another pitcher and either a right fielder or first baseman (Garret Jones would man the other position, with Travis Snyder a quality fourth outfielder) could be the subtle moves that put the team in position to break their 20 year futility.

If the team begins to falter, and the pitching regresses to their worst possible outcomes, punting this season would be smart, the division almost assuredly out of reach anyway. If they continue to play at their current rate through June, the club would be approximately 50-32, enough of a head start that even a September swoon wouldn’t destroy the team’s chances. If they struggle in the next month, the July deadline awaits. Still, for the Pittsburgh Pirates, mediocre is fantastic, even if twenty becomes twenty one.

Saying Goodbye to Dunder Mifflin: The Best of The Office

It started as a whisper, a single shot across the bow, or at least across the Atlantic. NBC guaranteed six episodes but nothing more, a built-in excuse for early cancellation.

The premiere episode of The Office attracted more than 11 million viewers, signaling great promise for a network needing even a sliver of hope. But the second episode’s viewership was nearly cut in half, with none of the remaining episodes generating more than six million people. Its fate appeared bleak as audiences seemed underwhelmed or turned off by the British import.

NBC, in one of its rare shining moments over the past decade, renewed the show for a second season. The six episode order turned into thirteen, then sixteen, and finally the magic twenty two. Ratings never rivaled those of hit shows, but for NBC, mediocre was enough.

The second season led to a third, which led to a fourth, and eventually, the workers of Dunder Mifflin were taped for more than 200 episodes spanning nine seasons. The Office became NBC’s most trusted comedy, a few short years after living in fear of the cancellation bear week-to-week.

Looking back on the cult favorite that bloomed into an honest portrayal of the monotony and stagnation of office work, it’s amazing to see what The Office has accomplished. Its success has spawned a sister show (Parks and Recreation) and created opportunities for its writers (Mindy Kaling, for example). Over the past nine years, The Office has combined laughs with heartbreak with joy, creating a show that succeeded when it seemed destined to fail.

As The Office waved its final goodbye last Thursday, it offers us the chance to fondly remember the best episodes of the award-winning show. Its final sendoff will be celebrated with pomp and circumstance, but it’s the little things that become so important.

That’s what she said.

HONORABLE MENTION:

THE CLIENT – season 2, episode 7

Television is extremely formulaic in approach, helpful to a writing staff that must generate more than 450 minutes of content each season. Usually, there is an “A” story designed to get the majority of the attention and then a “B” story that either pushes plot or, for a comedy, simply be funny. The Client has one of the best “B” stories on the series, in which Jim Halpert finds a script Michael Scott had been writing entitled “Threat Level Midnight”. Jim summons the entire office together to act out the script, which loosely features Scott as Agent Michael Scarn and Dwight Schrute as his incompetent sidekick, Samuel L Chang.

The lead story revolves around Michael, his boss Jan Levinson (Gould), and a client they are trying to acquire. It shows Michael at his best, unaware of his potential to offend while trying to make a good impression for his boss. The romantic implications between Michael and Jan would last for years, though that relationship’s impact pales in comparison to the scene where the office reads “Threat Level Midnight” together, in all of its error-filled glory.

THREAT LEVEL MIDNIGHT – season 7, episode 17

In Steve Carell’s seventh and final season as Michael Scott, the show’s writers wanted to give him a season-long thank you and hearken back to the days when the show was at its best. Threat Level Midnight is influenced by Scott’s script found in season two’s The Client, in which he plays a secret agent a la James Bond. Over the next five years, he somehow was able to film his movie, which features cameos from The Office regulars who had already said goodbye to the show.

The film isn’t terribly good, but that’s the point, it was forged by passion, ignorance and love. As the characters are watching their creation, it encompasses their bond, their achievements. The Office at its heart is about family, and this family has achieved something they should be proud to display.

GOODBYE TOBY – season 4, episode 18 and 19

For every hero, or at least self-described hero, there must be a villain. Toby Flenderson is that villain, a mild-mannered human resources representative who agitates Michael Scott simply by being himself. The season four finale, Goodbye Toby, allows Michael to wave goodbye to his foil, though Toby’s planned vacation to Costa Rica brings him back to Dunder Mifflin much quicker than he, or Michael, expected.

Goodbye Toby introduces Holly Flax, who would be a central part of the the next three seasons, but the episode says more about the relationships that unfortunately take more of a center stage in later seasons.

GOSSIP – season 6, episode 1

In what felt like an early season episode, Gossip may have been the best 22 minutes of comedy The Office put together in its final four seasons. Others had more heart, but Gossip, about Michael’s inability to keep even the smallest of secrets to himself, snowballed to engulf every cast member in a genuine and hilarious way. To cover up the fact that he spilled Stanley Hudson’s infidelity to his coworkers, Michael spent the better part of the episode spreading lies like Pinocchio on a bender. The culmination of Gossip, where everyone reveals the hideous rumor spread about them, never crosses the line, a testament to Carell’s likability.

HEALTHCARE – season 1, episode 3

Few episodes were as topical or integral as Healthcare, one of the first season’s shortened six episode run. The title describes the plot, with Michael tasked with choosing a healthcare plan, though he immediately delegates the responsibility to Dwight, the assistant to the regional manager. It never crosses the line into absurd, even if some of the potentially insured conditions do. Instead, it’s a microcosm of what office life truly entails, the mundane decisions that will impact everyone’s life. Healthcare captures the essence of the relatability of the show, even if later seasons lose that focus from time to time.

TRAVELING SALESMEN – season 3, episode 13

This is a personal favorite, for many of the same reasons that later episodes are reviled to a degree. Traveling Salesmen takes major characters out of their habitat and thrusts them into the wild, forced to eat or be eaten. The scenes with Jim and Dwight working as a team are as punchy as any comedy duo’s routine, while Michael and Andy Bernard’s hunt for the sale keeps the show as awkward as ever. There is true conflict in the episode, rare for a show that has the most to gain by keeping its characters all under one roof, but Traveling Salesmen shows that The Office can succeed when working in small groups, another bullet to add to its impressive resume.

THE TOP 15:

15. THE COUP – season 3, episode 3

If he proved anything during his tenure as regional manager, Michael Scott proved that he was somewhat incompetent (if not a diligent worker). Therefore, his subordinates would at least have some motivation to seek his dismissal. The premise for The Coup revolves around Dwight wanting Michael’s job, which Michael happily gives him (temporarily) after hearing of the betrayal. The episode perfectly displays their relationship, part father/son, part brother/brother. Michael, oscillating between love and hate, eventually forgives Dwight, albeit with some punishment.

14. BASKETBALL – season 1, episode 5

The first season of the US iteration of The Office mimicked its British namesake so closely that it threatened the show’s potential for renewal. Viewers tuned out, unable or unwilling to grasp the intended humor in cringe-worth situations. Basketball at least mixes in athletics, along with a new cast of characters. The warehouse workers, led by Craig Robinson’s Daryl Philbin, play the office workers for the “privilege” to work on Saturday. Michael assembles his team by race, his cheering section by sex appeal, and his plays by what he must have seen watching Big East basketball. The hilarity of the game — that ends on a controversial flagrant foul — lightens the awkwardness of The Office enough to make Basketball one of the best episodes of the show.

13. DRUG TESTING – season 2, episode 20

Business drug policies, or lack thereof, provide a universal knowledge that The Office carefully covers in Drug Testing. Residual marijuana is found in the parking lot, a witch hunt ensues, with whistle blower Dwight leading the investigation as his volunteer deputy-ship requires. His questioning of every member in the office gives secondary characters a focus, at least before Michael solemnly admits to Dwight that the joint is the byproduct of an Alanis Morissette concert. Dwight’s shame in administering to Michael drug-free urine (and his subsequent resignation from the force), shows the familial bond between these characters in settings that don’t necessitate such a connection. Drug Testing makes light of a serious issue, but its focus on love shows a softer show than the biting nature of season one.

12. THE FIRE – season 2, episode 7

Billy Joel, desert island and a cheese pita take center stage in another episode that feels universal and yet insane at the same time. The Scranton branch of Dunder Mifflin’s preparedness is tested when smoke bellows from the kitchen, causing everyone to evacuate the building. With nothing to do, employees play various time wasting games, such as desert island and the fan favorite, “Who would you do?” Michael continues his courting of Ryan Howard, temporary employee and business school attendant, making Dwight feel excluded. The Fire truly exemplifies the strong cast of characters The Office has assembled and that no matter the situation, the comedy always comes to the forefront.

11. BRANCH CLOSING – season 3, episode 7

The third season began with Jim in Stamford, separated from his coworkers (and his one true love). Eventually, there would need to be a change; the constant rumors of downsizing (which began in the pilot) provided the structure. While The Office attempted to temporarily subvert the fact that its main studio would always represent Scranton’s vitality, Branch Closing begins with everyone’s favorite Pennsylvanian paper supplier beleving it’s no more. Michael and Dwight attempt to salvage their jobs the only way they know how, by stalking the president of the company at his home. The various talking head confessionals showcase the disillusion and shattered dreams the workplace had on these people, a central theme that tied the show together.

The eventual resolution created an influx of characters, some for the better (Karen Filippelli), and some for the worse (Andy Bernard, though his vampire-like traits were largely hidden until after Michael Scott departed).

10. THE INJURY – season 2, episode 12

Michael Scott likes bacon. Michael Scott is lazy. Put those two facts together and The Injury is born, the episode where Michael burns his foot on a George Foreman grill. Insensitivity always defined the central character on The Office, but his actions after cooking his foot show little compassion and even less wherewithal.

The polarity between Michael and Dwight, his fearless sidekick/understudy who attempts to rescue Michael for the treachery of electricity, is striking. Dwight’s poor driving causes a concussion, which augments his behavior — from insufferable to somewhat likable — and forces Michael to begrudgingly aid his “friend”. The Office has always found heart in misfortune, and The Injury is a prime example.

9. THE JOB – season 3, episode 24

It may be unfair to mix season premieres and finales into the rankings, but The Office fantastically mixed plot and humor together when necessary. The Job, the final episode of season three, beautifully captures the desire to advance with the threat of leaving family behind, the constant struggle between profession and emotion. The Job also concludes the 50-episode sexual frustration of Jim and Pam, reuniting them, if only for a moment before the screen fades to black. That relationship was central to The Office‘s early-season success and its resolution, at least until the final season, was one of the iconic moments in the show’s history.

8. STRESS RELIEF – season 5, episodes 14 and 15

The post-Super Bowl spot is often given one of two types of television shows. The network hosting the most-watched event either puts a powerhouse show designed to showcase the best the network has to offer, or it schedules a newer show that could use some extra eyeballs. The Office was neither, though fell closer to the former than the latter. NBC never had copious amounts of confidence in the show, until the rest of its schedule dictated it out of necessity.

Stress Relief was the best episode of the show’s fifth season and represented one of the greatest cold opens in the comedy’s history. Dwight feels that his fire safety course has been neglected, so he opts for some “hands-on” training, largely at the expense of his coworkers. The various stages of panic — Oscar Martinez jumps into the vents, followed momentarily by Angela Martin’s cat — are incredible. The culmination, in which Stanley Hudson has a heart attack, sheds light on a common office issue without being morose.

7. GOODBYE MICHAEL – season 7, episode 22

With a show that relied heavily on emotion and familial bonds, it was difficult to see Michael Scott leave. Goodbye Michael rarely rises above tribute to its shepherd, but its sendoff was heartfelt, proud and memorable. Despite his deficiencies, Michael Scott deserved to ride off into the Colorado sunset with his soul mate, anything less would have diminished his impact and his bond with the audience.

6. THE DUNDIES – season 2, episode 1

An awards show for a small market subsidiary of a regional paper supply company should be awkward, embarrassing and insufferable. The Dundies accomplishes this perfectly, adding a touch of insensitivity that would haunt Michael Scott forever. While the award show is a vehicle for Michael to shine, it perfectly advances the Jim and Pam relationship, elevates the supporting cast and further ties the characters together as a misguided and destructive family unit that must live together forty hours per week.

5. GAY WITCH HUNT – season 3, episode 1

Sexuality is a topic often explored by television, though sexual orientation is a line rarely approached for fear of crossing it. Gay Witch Hunt not only explores the implications of a homosexual in the workplace, but does so in a refreshing manner that exposes the absurdity of homophobia. The Office made the decision to deviate from its source material in relation to Michael Scott, making him an ignoramus rather than an anti-hero. Therefore, Michael’s outing of Oscar as a homosexual never came across as mean or homophobic, just rude and unworldly.

Gay Witch Hunt features a scene where Michael attempts to kiss Oscar, completely improvised by the actors and a perfect example of the awkwardness The Office milked to fulfillment.

4. CASINO NIGHT – season 2, episode 22

Another season finale appears on this list, and just as The Job before it, Casino Night blends humor and story expertly. The office is having a casino night for charity in the warehouse, complete with Hooters waitresses, gambling and debauchery. Michael attempts to juggle two dates in a classic sitcom trope while the audience is given a taste of the Jim and Pam drama that had built over the previous 27 episodes. Casino Night builds to a cliffhanger ending purposefully, but with no resolution, it feels like the episode “dropped a deuce on everyone”.

3. CHRISTMAS PARTY – season 2, episode 10

It can be extremely difficult to conceptualize, write, direct, edit and produce a single episode of a television show, let alone 22. So The Office shouldn’t be faulted for using an industry standard: the holiday show. Christmas Party elevates the show above the trope in a finely-tuned 22 minutes of heart and hilarity that captures the essence of the show: a begrudging family celebrating the passage of time. With the workplace backdrop already a perfect setting, Christmas Party centers around a particularly mischievous game of “Yankee Swap”, in which feelings are hurt, affections are born, and clothes are discarded. Christmas Party becomes the archetype for all future iterations of the “holiday” episode.

2. DIVERSITY DAY – season 1, episode 2

Chris Rock’s defining performance may have happened without ever hearing his voice. Who am I kidding, it’s Marty from Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted!

Diversity Day is a rare glimpse into the Michael Scott as David Brent, the Ricky Gervais character that inspired the US version and whose insanity could not be replicated long-term. Michael has been insensitive yet again, repeating the infamous Rock routine about race, complete with copious amounts of swearing and offense. Corporate steps in and mandates diversity training, but Michael believes he can train the staff better, holding his own seminar just as stereotypical and racist as before.

1. BRANCH WARS – season 4, episode 10

The only episode on this list from the writers’ strike-shortened fourth season, Branch Wars pushes the main characters out of the office in perfectly bumbling schadenfreude. The premise — in which Michael recruits Dwight and Jim (under false pretenses) to take a road trip to Utica to confront their former coworker (and Jim’s ex) Karen — shines a spotlight on the various personalities central to the show. Throw in small bladders, eye-gouging and bombs (both real and fake), and Branch Wars succeeds in its ability to be ludicrous without ever coming across as farce.

The “B” story is just as solid, with Pam, Oscar and Toby organizing “The Finer Things Club”, a meek attempt to bring pretentiousness into such a dull setting. The all-inclusiveness, goes so poorly, it’s another example in the workplace’s futility to ever evolve into something more.

How to Fix Broadcast Television

Now is the summer of television’s discontent. This week, each of the four major broadcast networks — ABC, CBS, FOX and NBC — will display their new 2013-14 television schedules for advertisers and public, also known as “upfronts”.

The upfronts are our first glimpse into the future of television, full of eagerly-anticipated shows that will undoubtedly turn into drivel week by week. The upfronts also mark the official renewals and cancellations for existing shows, with Community somehow hanging on for a fifth year while Happy Endings unfortunately said goodbye (at least on ABC).

While this week often exposes the tried-and-true monotony of broadcast television, it doesn’t necessarily have to. There are a multitude of reasons why cable has become the place for better, and in some cases more popular, television. Creators have been given more reign and creative freedom, often at the expense of bigger budgets. Content can escape the iron vice of standards-and-practices, the Agent Smiths of the television industry censoring and limiting what a show can expose, or at least debate.

The main reason that broadcast television still demanded the most advertising revenue was that more people tuned into the basic four, with cable nothing more than a niche. But as creativity — and subsequently quality — increased outside the broadcast spectrum, viewership has followed, creating diminishing returns for big-budget projects on the single number channels.

For example, look at ER, NBC’s long-running hospital hit. It garnered the second highest viewership in its seventh season in 2000 at 22.4 million households. In 2013, the second biggest show is The Voice which generates approximately 12 million viewers per episode. While broadcast television still has the capital, viewing power and motivation to create popular television, that impetus has led to an expansion of reality television and tired narratives, few of which have long-running appeal. Of the freshman shows debuting in 2012, only Elementary (copied from the British version), The Neighbors (somehow), Chicago Fire (Dick Wolf will outlive everyone), Revolution (lucky), The Mindy Project (luckier), The Following and Nashville. This represents less than 10% of the network schedule (not including Saturdays), a paltry number that shows just how far broadcast television has fallen.

But with the laurels for quality work still attractive — and the current broadcast format creating high turnover and frequent chances for new ideas — most new content will gravitate toward the four major channels. With that in mind, here are some potential ideas for broadcast television to implement in order to stave off cable’s advances:

1. Eliminate the upfronts as an unveiling mechanism

Too much is made of upfront week, advertisers generally have an idea of a network’s future by its past. Instead of using this week as a primer for shows that won’t be on airwaves until September, broadcaster executives should release most of the pilots they commission early online — they could use Hulu as a driving mechanism for synergy and back-patting. Releasing pilots early would allow audiences to give their input, putting some level of democracy in the dictatorship. To counteract the potential problem with fatigue, networks would simply change the season order to accommodate the show’s necessity to create a new pilot. It would be easier to change characters — either for creative differences or previous commitments — which would eliminate some awkwardness if new actors pop up in the second week of September. 

New Girl encountered this problem, having to replace Damon Wayans Jr. with Lamorne Morris for the second episode because Wayans’ show, Happy Endings, was picked up for a second season. FOX aired the pilot with Wayans, and the next week Morris replaced him, with an aside that the original character was simply going overseas to pursue a basketball career. Networks would be able to show  the amount of work they put in to pilot season, and at least be somewhat transparent in their executive decisions on their respective networks’ future schedules.

Crowd sourcing new shows does carry some potential negatives — Amazon is experimenting with the idea and has unfortunately found out that quality is paramount for success — but the positives greatly outweigh the drawbacks, especially when considering that the successful pilots will see the light of day a scant few months later, the plot holes and broken characters there in all their glory.

2. Change the broadcast structure to maximize airtime

Shows that begin in the Fall season rarely air more than 24 episodes, meaning there are at least ten weeks of dead time in the schedule. No show should be expected to produce 35 weeks of television, but a better model of when to air the new episodes would maximize audience retention and interest.

Cable networks rarely commission more than 12 episodes per season, thus allowing each show to run in consecutive weeks from beginning to end. While broadcast television may have higher expectations for their series — and may have difficulty managing would could become 30+ shows, a more strategic approach would help build multi-episode arcs and mitigate any potential viewership loss due to bad scheduling or hiatuses.

NBC attempted this strategy, opting to create a mid-season bridge for the freshman show Revolution, where it would air in the Fall, take an extended break and then air in the Spring. The theory was sound — repeats threatened the narrative of the show and could confuse viewers who didn’t primarily watch from their DVRs — but Spring viewership declined precipitously from the Fall. Instead, networks could air thirteen new episodes of a given show (most likely dramas instead of comedies) in a row from early September to mid-December. If the show was a hit, it could either extend its run the following season, or continue to be a truncated thirteen episode series for each subsequent season. The Walking Dead, the highest rated show on television, aired sixteen episodes in its most recent, third season.

The most limiting factor for this plan is content — would a network have enough shows to survive shortened seasons from its serials? Mixing the correct content with the schedule, and balancing these types of shows with broader comedies (but don’t forget targeting niche audiences) and procedurals (Law and Order is the best example of this format) would allow a network to generate buzz for new vehicles that would have limited runs.

If there are still some weeks that seem empty, get creative. Any network could air holiday episodes of its past hits during Christmastime or Thanksgiving, or even resort to mini-marathons that allow audiences to find new shows weeks after they’ve begun to air. Or, as one NBC affiliate decided, it’s time to bring Matlock back!

3. Embrace Online Viewership

Broadcast television networks make profits not on the success of their shows (at least until syndication), but on their ability to sell airtime to advertisers who sell their commercials to the general public. Better ratings usually translate into more advertising revenue, of course, as the theory believes that more people watching equals more people paying attention to the commercials.

However, the advent of the DVR has slowly counteracted the rise of advertising revenue — no one wants to pay for airtime that will simply be skipped. While there are many different ideas for how to force consumers to watch ads, one (annoying) solution is the pre-show advertisement, often found on online videos. Force someone to watch a 30-second commercial in order to watch a five minute video/segment/clip, and at least the advertisement has been consumed. No one has yet done the math to determine the ideal way to monetize this practice, but broadcast networks should take note of its increasingly-online base.

While it may be a niche product, HBOGO may have laid an important footprint. The application, which currently requires an HBO subscription (though that may change as it battles with Netflix), gets HBO content moments after it begins to air on television. Miss the first five minutes of Game of Thrones and couldn’t put it on the DVR? Don’t worry, you can just open the app and stream the episode from the beginning. Broadcast networks should take note, showing new episodes of television shows minutes after they begin to air (not the next day, Hulu, which is owned in part by ABC, FOX and NBC). Advertisements before the content airs would generate revenue as well and could eventually factor into the ratings analysis.

If the networks fail to embrace the internet, other companies could nudge them out of their own market. A product called Aereo threatens to broadcast network television on its app, with unlimited cloud DVR storage space. It could effectively kill broadcast television, which is why CBS has threatened to pull its programming off the air and the four main broadcasters have filed a joint suit against Aereo.

Lower courts have sided with Aereo in its fight to record and rebroadcast live television, though the big battles remain. For the big four, this is just another reminder that their days of television dominance are quickly coming to an end.

Lights, Camera, Billions: Ranking the Summer Blockbusters

The correlation between creativity and money in film exists as a predictor of future projects. Gross $200 million in 2013 in order to have the independence to make a new movie in 2015. Fail to meet lofty box office expectations and it’s back to producing music videos.

No season is more important to the vitality of the film industry than the summer blockbuster season, the period from early May through mid-August that will set the bottom lines and establish the potential for movies without numbers attached as suffixes. This is where careers are made, where money goes on its vacation from its stretched-too-thin work during Oscar season.

There are more than thirty movies set to be released to wide audiences (2,500+ theaters) this summer, about two in each of the season’s sixteen weeks. The premise here is simple: based on previous seasons, past performances in the franchise and directors, stars, and producers, the task is to place each film in order based on its final box office gross.

For example, The Avengers topped the 2012 box office, raking in more than $623 million in domestic receipts. This does not include foreign totals, merchandise or DVD/Blu-Ray/On-Demand sales, simply individuals in the seats watching the big screen, most likely with 3-D glasses adorned to their faces.

(It should be noted that these rankings are only for the “summer” season, so while The Hunger Games was the third highest-grossing movie of 2012, it would not have made the list last season given its March release. )

All dollar amounts are courtesy of Box Office Mojo:

1. IRON MAN 3 – May 3

PREDICTION: $145 million

Just as The Avengers last year, Marvel will again have the top performing movie of the summer (and most likely, the year). In Iron Man 3‘s favor are the fact that its release kicks off the summer season, therefore it will likely have the longest run. It is also being released in 3-D, which adds $2-$5 per ticket. The fact that its passed $300 million internationally before it even premiered domestically suggested peak demand for a franchise whose first two iterations each grossed over $300 million in their lifetimes. The first Iron Man pulled in nearly $100 million in its opening weekend five years ago, suggesting that as long as the new edition wasn’t universally panned, it had a chance to reign supreme over Iron Man 2, which netted $128 million in its first three days.

Given the reporting structure of this piece (and overall laziness), Iron Man 3 will have been released by the time this is published. Its opening weekend total surpassed $175 million, besting projections to be the second highest grossing first weekend in history (behind The Avengers). This level of excitement will have an effect on the remaining predictions insofar as to adjust them higher, though the order will generally stay the same. My guess, timestamped on social media, remains the same:

This may make more sense later, but I think Iron Man 3 will gross about $145 million in its opening weekend and $600 million domestically—
John Christopher (@JChristopher27) May 03, 2013

2. MAN OF STEEL – June 14

PREDICTION: $142 million

While Iron Man 3 is nearly a lock for the top spot given its production company, source material and history, the same three factors make Man of Steel the most difficult guaranteed blockbuster to predict. It will make money, this is what Christopher Nolan does, armed with an Instagram filter and a director who doesn’t need to worry about writing a movie. Zack Snyder is responsible for 300, and he would like everyone to forget about Sucker Punch and to a lesser extent The Watchmen. His primary strength as a filmmaker is depicting action, everything else simply falls by the wayside.

With Man of Steel, the script has strong influences from Nolan and David S Goyer, who co-wrote Batman Begins. Despite the potential pitfalls with the most recent Batman installment, it still grossed $160 million in its opening weekend, $110 million more than Batman Begins. With Man of Steel, the bar is set extremely high, given that the last attempt to revive the franchise failed spectacularly in 2006 (despite grossing $391 million worldwide). Given the pedigree of those involved with the project, and the favorable buzz surrounding early cuts and trailers, Man of Steel should recapture Superman’s glory.

3. MONSTERS UNIVERSITY – June 21

PREDICTION – $116 million

The second installment of Pixar’s beloved Monsters, Inc. franchise should take the crown of highest grossing animated movie of the summer. It has the benefit of being released before Despicable Me 2, the most likely challenger to its animated crown. Pixar won the race last year with Brave racking up $66 million in its opening weekend. Monsters University has some advantages over its Scottish counterpart, most notably that it’s part of an established franchise.

Its closest comparable may be Toy Story 3, a sequel released eleven years after its previous iteration. Toy Story 3 grossed $110 million in its opening weekend and with Monsters University set to be released almost twelve years after Monsters, Inc., the similarities are evident.

4. STAR TREK INTO DARKNESS – May 17

PREDICTION – $109 million

The second installment of the Star Trek reboot should improve upon the $75 million Star Trek grossed in its opening weekend four years ago. Factoring in inflation, the franchise’s popularity and the likability of director JJ Abrams, and Star Trek should climb above the $100 million mark (only four films claimed that accomplishment last year). It should be interesting to see the role IMAX screens play in its opening weekend.

5. FAST & FURIOUS 6 – May 24

PREDICTION – $105 million

It should come as no surprise that every film so far is part of an established franchise, as Hollywood has turned into an industry of low risks and high rewards. The Fast and Furious franchise has spawned six installments in twelve years, an impressive rate for even the most low-brow concepts. Fast Five made $86 million at the box office in its opening weekend, though its April release may have tempered revenues.

Fast & Furious 6 will be released in May — a traditionally higher grossing month — though it will square off with The Hangover III, a film with a similar target audience. The Hangover III has pushed its release up a day earlier (May 23) and unless Fast & Furious 6 responds in a similar fashion, its opening weekend may suffer a bit.

6. DESPICABLE ME 2 – July 3

PREDICTION – $103 million

The first Despicable Me was a slow burn, raking in “just” $56 million in its opening weekend (9th in 2010) en route to $251 million domestically (7th that same year). The sequel is eagerly anticipated, and has earned the July 4 holiday slot. Its main competition – The Lone Ranger — is in jeopardy of being one of the bigger busts of the season, as Johnny Depp in full Native American garb (and accent) may be a tough sell.

The main attraction in the Despicable Me franchise are the minions, yellow blobs of recklessness that may have a longer shelf life than the penguins of the Madagascar series. With expectations at an all-time high, Despicable Me 2 may challenge Monsters University for top spot among the animated titles.

7. THE HANGOVER III – May 23

PREDICTION – $97 million

The Hangover franchise shares many similarities with Iron Man. The first films were critically praised and established new global film empires. The second iterations grossed more money, but were critically underwhelming, somewhat rushed and misguided. Now, the third (and potentially final) films will be released, both primed to approach the fantastic level of the first installment. With Hangover II  grossing almost $86 million virtually two years ago to the day, an improvement is expected. However, unlike two years ago — when the biggest competition was Kung Fu Panda 2, The Hangover III and Fast & Furious 6 will be going heads up. Given the former’s “R” rating, it seems that Fast & Furious 6 should have a small advantage.

The bigger question for director Todd Phillips will be if The Hangover III can break the “R” rated opening weekend record of $92 million set by The Matrix Reloaded. Given Warner Bros. decision to release the film a day early, it has a chance.

8. THE WOLVERINE – July 26

PREDICTION – $94 million

The Wolverine will be the X-Men movie and the second featuring Wolverine in a titular role, because money is money and movies like this allow Hugh Jackman to make films like Les Miserables. Despite the potential for franchise burnout and the lackluster previews for The Wolverine, the previous film opened at $85 million. The brand may be worth more than the film itself, but in Hollywood, that’s usually more than enough.

9. THE LONE RANGER – July 3

PREDICTION: $64 million

How far can Johnny Depp carry a movie? Rango drew $38 million, though The Tourist (with Angelina Jolie), garnered only $16 million in its opening weekend. The Lone Ranger will have the benefit of a favorable opening — and an extra two days factored into the equation — but the underwhelming trailers and limited concept may keep Tonto from another big box office gross.

10. WORLD WAR Z – June 21

PREDICTION: $56 million

There are few comparable films that would indicate a roaring success is imminent for World War Z. There was Cloverfield in 2008, which made $40 million in its opening weekend, though that carried the JJ Abrams brand (and was slightly more mysterious), rather than being based on a best-selling book. With Brad Pitt and zombies, World War Z has the cornerstones to make a huge splash, but its placement the week after Man In Steel – which projects to be a major hit — and its less-than-stellar trailers should temper expectations some.

11. PACIFIC RIM – July 12

PREDICTION: $53 million

Giant robots fighting deep sea monsters seems like a film found on basic cable very early in the morning. Instead, it will be displayed on big screens (and IMAX), in 3-D in July. Pacific Rim has the potential to be a phenomenal movie that shows the true art of digital effects. Or, it could be a colossal failure the size of one of the giant monsters seen in the trailers. Early indications are that the film is fantastic  unsurprising given that Guillermo del Toro is at the helm. Its opening weekend gross should fall somewhere between Cloverfield‘s $40 million and the original Transformers‘ $70 million.

12. WHITE HOUSE DOWN – June 28

PREDICTION: $50 million

Yes, this is the second film about the White House coming under military attack this year, because even when Hollywood may have a creative idea, it has to double down. This version stars Jamie Foxx as the president and Channing Tatum in his best Gerard Butler impersonation, which suggests that the film may be better a little than Olympus Has Fallen. That film premiered in March to $35 million in its opening weekend, numbers that are respectable, yet would be underwhelming three months later. Given that its fiercest competition is The Heat, White House Down could net up to $50 million and win the weekend.

13. THE SMURFS 2 – July 31

PREDICTION – $49 million

Summer movie fatigue may not hit many genres (or even exist at all), but the plethora of family films could hurt those released later in the season. The Smurfs 2 may be able to avoid this potential problem, as its late July release (on a Wednesday) has the market all to itself (and has two more family-focused films following it in the proceeding weeks). The first film grossed more than $35 million in its opening weekend and this iteration should have no problem making its fans blue themselves in the theater.

14. GROWN UPS 2 – July 12

PREDICTION: $48 million

Nine percent. That is the critical reception to the original Grown Ups according to Rotten Tomatoes, though expecting Adam Sandler comedies to rate well with critics is more childish and ignorant than his persona. Grown Ups grossed $40 million in its opening weekend and ended up making $162 million domestically, the 15th highest grossing film of 2010. This is why Hollywood makes sequels. Grown Ups 2 features a similar level of low-brow comedy that has worked for Sandler for decades, so betting against him is unwise (unless he’s cross dressing).

15. ELYSIUM – August 9

PREDICTION: $46 million

The success of Elysium will likely hinge on its ability to attract audiences — either through positive reviews or mind-blowing trailers. Starring Matt Damon, Elysium is the follow up from Neil Blomkamp, who directed District 9 to a $37 million opening weekend. The science fiction genre is well represented this summer, but a late arriving and powerful narrative has the potential to surprise.

16. AFTER EARTH – May 31

PREDICTION: $45 million

This seems impossible to predict, the pros and cons all so overt that any guess will be incorrect. After Earth is a Will Smith vehicle, so that should guarantee a sizable opening weekend payout. Only, the film looks like it could take the title for worst sci-fi attempt of the year, even beating out Oblivion. But it also stars Jaden Smith, the prodigal offspring that will ascend to the right hand of his father, most likely in the film itself. After Earth could turn out to be a runaway hit, and given that its magic act will undoubtedly outperform the literal magic act it’s competing against, it should easily push $30 million. Expecting much more than that, however, puts too much faith in Will (and Jaden) Smith.

17. THIS IS THE END – June 12

PREDICTION: $44 million

After The Hangover III, the slate of summer comedies looks particularly bleak. There is the Aubrey Plaza vehicle, The To-Do List, though that was moved up to be burned off against Wolverine. In June, the choices are The Internship or This is the End. The latter looks profoundly better than the former, given those involved and what appears to be a level of freedom regarding its plot, characters, and creative narrative. This is the End features an incredible ensemble of comedic talent and should open better than Superbad‘s $33 million in 2007, especially when considering that it’ll be released on a Wednesday.

18. THE HEAT – June 28

PREDICTION – $43 million

For comedies, marketability is key. Since The Heat boasts strong turns by Sandra Bullock and Melissa McCarthy as archetypes of their comedic roles, there is little left to the imagination (and subsequently the likelihood of a poor film is greatly diminished). Still, only two “R” rated comedies grossed more than $50 million in their opening weekend – The Hangover Part II and Sex and the City – so expectations should be relatively low. Also working against the film is the fact that Bullock has never led a movie to an opening greater than $34 million. The Heat should top Bridesmaids, its closest comparable and a film that netted $26 million in 2011, though it will assuredly pale in comparison to The Hangover III.

19. PERCY JACKSON: SEA OF MONSTERS – August 7

PREDICTION: $39 million

The first iteration grossed $31 million in its opening weekend thee years ago (in February), so a bump should be expected. While the plethora of family-friendly films may limit the box office return, Percy Jackson‘s Wednesday release — along with the 3-D conversion — should boost the numbers.

20. TURBO – July 17

PREDICTION: $38 million

Another animated movie in a season overstuffed with them, Turbo attempts to separate itself from the pack by…well…nothing. The story about a snail who wants to go fast is Dreamworks’ version of Cars, featuring a similar “crew”, race structure and most likely plot. Turbo could be somewhat decent, which would help its five day opening weekend, but it seems that for families interested in seeing one film in July, why would they choose Turbo over Despicable Me 2? Expectations for anything more than Ratatouille’s $47 million are ignorantly ambitious.

21. 2 GUNS – August 2

PREDICTION: $34 million

Will it be more like Safe House ($40 million) or more like Pain and Gain ($20 million)? While Hollywood is determined to make Mark Whalberg a star, the financial success of 2 Guns will hinge on Denzel Washington (and potentially Kanye West). Most likely, a favorable slot — the 300 sequel has been pushed back to 2014 — will push the film over the $30 million mark in its opening weekend.

22. THE GREAT GATSBY – May 10

PREDICTION – $33 million

It’s been eight years since an established franchise did not kick off this particular weekend when Monster-in-Law nabbed $23 million (Star Trek may not have been a sequel, but it was not the first movie in the series). Other factors working against director Baz Luhrmann are middling reviews and the fact that none of his previous films grossed even $15 million in their opening weekends. While the star power is abundant, Leonardo DiCaprio failed to deliver box office royalties with J Edgar, his most recent turn as a leading man. With Iron Man 3 still hovering over the industry in its second weekend, expect The Great Gatsby to most likely finish second in its opening turn.

23. PLANES – August 9

PREDICTION – $30 million

In classic Disney over-saturation, the company has commissioned a Cars spin-off in Planes, the Cars of the sky, apparently.  Given Pixar’s non-involvement in the film, quality and buzz seem likely to underwhelm. Planes will also be competing against the second Percy Jackson installment, further limiting its opening weekend gross.

24. THE INTERNSHIP – June 7

PREDICTION: $28 million

While it was the 6th highest grossing film of 2005 — and the highest “R” rated film of that year – Wedding Crashers netted only $34 million in its opening weekend, the 16th best opening weekend. Reuniting the leads from such an impressive film seemed like box office gold, but weak trailers and what appears to be a similar level of comedy eight years later has potential audiences thinking twice. Going up against male-friendly films in their second weeks (The Hangover III and Fast & Furious 6), The Internship looks to be the wrong movie at the wrong time.

25. KICK ASS 2 – August 16

PREDICTION: $26 million

Making $96 million on a $30 million budget allowed Kick Ass to have a second life. Kick Ass 2 follows in the original’s graphic novel influence, though director Matthew Vaughn has handed over the series as he focuses on another X-Men film. Kick Ass 2 has enough buzz that it should outpace the original, though not so much that a graphic and violent niche comic book film will see more than $30 million in its opening weekend.

26. R.I.P.D. – July 19

PREDICTION: $25 million

The premise is creative, if this were 1999. Ryan Reynolds, in an attempt to salvage his A-list trajectory, plays a cop who succumbs to injury and becomes an invincible officer defending the after life with Jeff Bridges. Even if this were intentionally satirical or campy, it would be a tough sell at the box office. There may be enough fans of the source material for RIPD to win its weekend, but it seems like a tough sell as a major hit.

27. THE PURGE – June 7

PREDICTION: $24 million

The concept is incredible: the government allows for a twelve hour period, known as The Purge, where any and all crime is legal (murder, vandalism, etc.) and all emergency services are suspended, creating total chaos. There are elements of Panic Room and The Strangers, which add to the potential intrigue. Still, given the premise, and the fact that it appears to be more thriller than horror, expectations should be tempered.

28. RED 2 – July 19

PREDICTION: $20 million

One day, Red will be the answer to the trivia question, “What film starring four AARP members grossed $200 million worldwide?” As unlikely as it is, Red spawned a sequel, which will surely be a small hit at the 4 pm matinee. Splitting the bill with RIPD could dig into its opening weekend, but neither film should expect to net a large payday.

29. NOW YOU SEE ME – May 31

PREDICTION: $19 million

This may be a film that gets critical praise, but fails to resonate at the box office. Now You See Me is a movie about magic, which appeared dead-on-arrival with The Incredible Burt Wonderstone earlier this year. The similarities to Ocean’s Eleven would be a boost, if only the star power was anywhere close to the same level. Led by Jesse “Facebook” Eisenberg and Woody Harrelson, Now You See Me has resorted to displaying its first four minutes online to generate publicity.

30. EPIC – May 24

PREDICTION: $18 million

Vague title? Check. Ambiguous trailer that simultaneously provides no details and summarizes the entire plot? Check. Epic has suffered from a less-than-stellar marketing campaign, with little public awareness about the film, suggesting that Fox has little faith in the film. While it may benefit from being in 3-D and being the only widely available film for children that weekend, Epic has inspired little faith.

31. WE’RE THE MILERS – August 9

PREDICTION: $16 million

Ed Helms, Jennifer Aniston, Jason Sudekis, Emma Roberts and Neil Offerman star in We’re the Millers about a pot dealer who creates a fake family as part of an attempt to move large amounts of marijuana from Mexico. The premise seems funny (as it should), but without anything more than a cast list and a synopsis, it’s difficult to judge a film’s chances. A release date in August suggests decent, if not spectacular expectations, but unless the hype builds dramatically over the next few months, a high box office gross seems out of reach.

32. THE TO-DO LIST – July 26

PREDICTION: $14 million

Aubrey Plaza is not a household name, despite her being on one of the best shows on television, Parks and Recreation. Her film about a high school girl looking to complete a sexual check list has potential, but it likely will need a strong word-of-mouth reputation and critical acclaim. Going up against the latest installment in the Wolverine cash cow likely won’t help.

33. THE CONJURING – July 19

PREDICTION – $13 million

Horror films rarely are released during the summer movie period, over-saturation makes it more difficult for a small film without critical acclaim to turn a profit. The Conjuring could get lucky amongst a slate of mediocre films if the trailers garner more attention, but the limited views on YouTube (for a trailer that has been out six weeks) suggest a low turnout

34. PARANOIA – August 16

PREDICTION: $10 million

With no trailer out for the Harrison Ford / Gary Oldman vehicle, any box office guess seems premature. Still, the fact that there is little buzz behind this picture — though it was moved up to the summer season — suggests that RelativelyMedia, the studio that brought you Movie 43, has little impetus to hard-sell the film.

Just Stop, Tom Ricketts

The plight of the rich man garners no sympathy, at least in the eyes of the public. He embodies the successes and failures of capitalism, the ability to live the American Dream just long enough to become a figurehead for America’s ills. The rich man rarely cares about public perception, as money cures all wounds, emotional and physical. The rich man only needs the public when he deems its change necessary, and in these moments, his character is revealed.

Tom Ricketts qualifies as a rich man. The son of Joseph Ricketts, the founder of Ameritrade, Tom is the figurehead for an empire valued at over $1 billion, enough to be placed in the Forbes 400, for reasons both imaginary and meaningless. Tom used his fortune to purchase the Chicago Cubs in January 2009 for $900 million. This is how he became more than just a rich man (or an heir to a rich man) and became the man in charge of one of the most profitable  and storied franchises in all of sports.

The Chicago Cubs are synonymous with failure, built into the DNA in 1909 like a science experiment gone horribly wrong. Only this horrific genetic mutation has become the team’s claim to fame, a reason for their relative success. For the Chicago Cubs, losing is somehow beneficial.

Well, to a certain extent.  The Cubs have been admitted to the postseason just six times since their last World Series appearance in 1945 (when a certain goat just had to ruin everything). By contrast, the team has lost 90+ games 22 times since 1945, and has finished in last place in the division seven times (divisional play was created in 1969).

Why have fans continuously supported such an inept team? The answer lies in the hallowed grounds of Wrigley Field.

Wrigley Field, the second oldest stadium active stadium in baseball behind the Green Monster-wielding Fenway Park in Boston, encompasses the entirety of the Cubs existence. The ballpark has aged alongside the team, though as the on field product has often faltered, its house has grown in stature. Fans flock to the north side of Chicago for Wrigley Field not to see a winning baseball team, but for a chance at a three hour escape in the sun with 40,000 others looking for the same reprieve.

Wrigley Field has become the symbol of history, of preservation when the future beckons toward the present. The manual scoreboard in center field hearkens back to a simpler time, while the summertime ivy serves as one of the last vestiges of natural preservation. The atmosphere is serine, possessing the quaint sensibilities of the early 20th century without the oppressive sensory overload of new ballparks.

There are deficiencies, status quo for any building built a century ago. The infrastructure offers the faint belief that it may soon collapse, while the male bathrooms feature troughs. This has yet to discourage the fans, even as the on field play rivals the top minor league ballclubs.

The Cubs are ninth in baseball in attendance in 2013, averaging 32,150 per home game, or 78% (according to ESPN). Despite losing 101 games last season, Chicago drew 2.88 million fans (86%), snapping a streak of eight consecutive seasons of 3 million fans watching the Cubs play at Wrigley Field per season. Their in-city rival, the Chicago White Sox, drew only 1.97 million to US Cellular Field in 2012 (60%), even though the White Sox won 85 games and challenged for a playoff spot.

Wrigley Field needs to be renovated, but its main features should remain intact, a legend unto themselves. Visiting the ballpark that resides on the corners of Clark and Addison must maintain its singularity, its uniqueness in an era when new stadiums are the norm, regardless the sport. In the past two decades alone, Chicago has seen a new baseball field, a new basketball/hockey complex and an expansion to Soldier Field. Keeping Wrigley Field as the landmark it has become should be top priority for Mr. Ricketts, as it will keep him a rich man regardless of how the team performs.

Yet, the changes Ricketts has imposed since 2009 have signaled that the rich man will do battle against the public. First, there was the  Toyota sign beyond left field, enormous in stature and product placement. It will generate revenues, though the amount funneled into the team in terms of player acquisition remains to be seen.

This balancing act between public advertisement and historical landmark will define Mr. Ricketts, the rich man who wants to hold onto his money. He has requested the city of Chicago help fuel his enterprise, requesting public finances for a new scoreboard and the permits to regulate the land surrounding the park as he sees fit. This level of public commitment is not unprecedented, but if history is any indication, its profitability has an incredibly poor track record.

The most recent example is Jeffrey Loria, the evil genius who has virtually bankrupted the city of Miami into funding a new stadium for one of the worst teams in baseball. His level of cunning, backstabbing and commitment to his own vitality has brandished baseball as the sport of ignorance and stupidity. Loria promised to put the money he saved into the team, though everyone forgot to ask him if his fingers were crossed. The grand experiment lasted less than a year, every single player signed to a long-term contract in the winter of 2011 now plays baseball somewhere else.

The city of Miami has turned on Mr. Loria, though the anti-trust protection in baseball ensures his ownership until he decides to sell, most likely for a substantial profit. In the last season in their old ballpark, the Florida Marlins were 28th in attendance at 19,007 fans per game (49%). Their first season as the Miami Marlins, Marlins Park drew an average of 27,400 fans per game, or 73%). After the sell-off, the team has fallen to 25th, with 18,864 begrudgingly attending each contest (50%), though there is no publicly-available breakdown that shows just how many were suckered into long-term season ticket plans before the front office jettisoned its players.

The rich man in Chicago has shown no insistence on becoming the Jeffrey Loria of the Midwest. There are similarities, insofar as both have shown the impetus to improve the on-field product. Ricketts has suggested that in order to sign new players and build a perennial powerhouse farm system — a necessity in the modern era — he requires additional revenue. A better team will lead to better attendance, thereby eventually paying the new players’ salaries…in due time. He wants to modernize Wrigley Field now.

The rich man has finally driven his capitalist motives into an impasse. Cubs fans and fanatics of Wrigley Field love its beauty and its history. The fact that it lacks modern technology only enhances the experience. Stripping away at its aura diminishes the park and its luster, while better players will unlikely create an inverse effect to offset the changes. It seems as if Mr. Ricketts believed he would be hailed as the savior, the one who would end the futility, a parade down Michigan Avenue a foregone conclusion. Putting in the work would be easy, as no one asks questions when rich men demand more money for their hobbies.

Now, the rich man is in the final stages of negotiating an agreement that will turn Wrigley Field into an amusement park, with businesses outbidding each other for space alongside the stadium. Gone will be the day games that have come to define the Chicago Cubs, though the few that will remain will most likely not be on WGN, though the blame for that eventual breakup will be on the Superstation.

As Mr. Ricketts continues to get his way, he has begun to turn everyone against him in his plan for profits, oscillating between begging the public and demanding their acceptance (and money). He has threatened to move the team, a knife so deep that it will either cut right through fans’ hearts, or miss completely. The threat is an empty one, full of vitriol and anger that Chicagoans have come to expect from Jerry Reinsdorf, the penny-pinching owner of the White Sox and Bulls.

If Ricketts continues to display public acts of aggression, the results will be comical. Nothing will change — Wrigley Field is too valuable a commodity, much more so than the Cubs themselves in relative terms — though the plans to move forward with renovations will be met with begrudging acceptance. The Chicago Cubs are the proud property of Tom Ricketts, and he will do whatever he believes will net him the biggest profit, either in monetary or societal terms.

I will join in other Cubs fans pleas to leave Wrigley Field alone, preserving its status as the premiere destination to simply watch baseball, unplugged from the burdens of technology. Whether the team will ever win its first World Series since 1908 is in the hands of team president Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer, with above-average payroll not directly indicative of success. At an estimated $104 million in 2013, the Cubs payroll is $13 million greater than the Baltimore Orioles, a team currently 20-13 and fresh off a (surprising) playoff run last season. Allocating resources effectively wins championships, as long as there is a modicum of money available.

So please, Mr. Ricketts, face of the lovable losers who play at the Friendly Confines, keep Wrigley Field intact, both physically and aesthetically  Renovating the park to ensure its survival is encouraged, but creating a shrine to capitalism is nothing more than a slap in the face of fans who bleed Cubby blue.

And those vacant threats that strike fear in the eyes of nobody, they need to stop. Now. You don’t want your beloved treasure to end up like the White Sox, do you?

What We Learned in the MLB – Week 5 (Twenty Questions Edition)

As the season ticks into its second month, small sample sizes gradually become more meaningful. Fast starts begin to turn into magical years. Slumps can become trends, and perceived buyers at the trade deadline become sellers (and vice versa).

Let’s take a look at twenty pressing questions around the MLB:

1. Can the Toronto Blue Jays make the playoffs?

Currently, the favorite to win the American League East sports a record of 11-21, 9.5 games behind the Boston Red Sox. There are a multitude of reasons for their putrid start, led by a pitching staff sporting the third worst ERA in baseball. The hitters aren’t hitting, for either power or average, and Jose Reyes will miss nearly half the season.

In order for Toronto to make the postseason,  they would need to win at least 87 games, but probably more (it took 93 wins to be a Wild Card team last season). Assuming 87 is the magic number, the Blue Jays would have to go 76-54, a winning percentage of .585. Only three teams finished the 2012 season with a winning percentage above .585: The New York Yankees, The Cincinnati Reds and the Washington Nationals. Is it possible that Toronto can lead the league in wins going forward? Of course, but it will take more than rebounds from RA Dickey and Brandon Morrow. The rest of the rotation will need to pitch at All Star levels, while Jose Bautista may need to crack 40 home runs.

2. If the Blue Jays have a chance, the Los Angeles Angels have one too, right?

Technically, yes. The Angels are 11-20, a half game better than their northeastern counterparts. But there is the matter of Josh Hamilton making Starlin Castro look like a patient hitter and the fact that Albert Pujols is 33. Their pitching may be even worse than Toronto’s, they have the second worst team ERA despite friendly a friendly BABIP and reasonable strand rates. For both the Blue Jays and Angels, it may come down to which team makes the better push for a starting pitcher at the trade deadline. Of course, there is the possibility that another sloppy month turns both teams into sellers.

3. Will Roy Halladay ever win 15 games in a season again?

Unfortunately, the answer appears to be no. He is visiting a shoulder specialist this week after complaining of pain, which undoubtedly contributed to his horrific start to the season. From 2006 through 2011, Halladay won 16 or more games each season, while carrying an ERA above 3 just twice. He will turn 36 next week, an age that even his extreme conditioning program cannot undo. This will most likely be his last season in a Philadelphia Phillies uniform — he has a $14 million club option for 2014. While he may never pitch the way he did during his magical run, he has a chance to end his career on his terms.

4. Is the AL Central the best division in baseball?

It’s not a joke, which shows just how much the lower tier teams have improved since last season. From the worst winning percentage last season (as a division), the AL Central is currently 75-66, a shade better than the 82-73 compiled so far by the AL East. The Kansas City Royals are 17-10, while the Cleveland Indians and Minnesota Twins are playing surprisingly well. Even the Chicago White Sox have only allowed fifteen more runs than they’ve scored.

5. If the AL Central is so good, why are the White Sox playing so poorly?

At 12-17, the White Sox are five games below .500 and 6.5 games behind the division leading Detroit Tigers. At no point during the 2012 season did the White Sox slip to five games below .500. Their anemic offense has mustered just 102 runs through the first 29 games, the second fewest in baseball (ahead of Miami) and 20 fewer than the Houston Astros who have eight wins. Last season, Chicago  scored 748 runs, the fourth most in the American League. Right now, the White Sox have the worst walk rate in baseball and the third highest strikeout rate, two insurmountable problems going forward.

6. Can any team usurp Detroit?

At 19-11 the Tigers are at least playing better than last season, when a second half surge was barely enough to overtake Chicago. But the Royals are a half-game back, with a much-improved pitching staff led by offseason acquisition James Shields. While injuries are often difference makers, the Tigers have the superior team as the two are currently constructed. They have the fourth best team ERA (the Royals are fifth) and they lead the league in strikeouts per nine innings. The only area where the Tigers may need help: speed. Their 13 stolen bases are 11 behind the Royals.

7. The best offense in the MLB belongs to who?

When broken down by WAR, the Cleveland Indians have the best offense in baseball. While there are many potential flaws with this metric as a one-off, it at least validates the idea that Cleveland can drastically improve on a 68-win season in 2012. Their 40 home runs are tied for third, while their isolated power leads the league. Carlos Santana is staking his claim as the best offensive catcher in baseball while Mark Reynolds has yet to remember he’s not supposed to hit .296 (the 9 HRs are par for the course). Still, the most surprising contributor has to be Ryan Raburn who had a three game stretch in which he went 11-13 with 2 HRs and 9 RBI.

8. Will anyone challenge Houston for the worst record in baseball?

The Miami Marlins can, as well as the Chicago Cubs if they are able to deal away a sizable chunk of their team by the end of July. Houston is currently leading the race for the #1 pick, two wins “ahead” of the Marlins and three “better” than the Cubs. The Astros have allowed the most runs, at 198, or more than six per game. This would put Houston on pace to allow more than 1,000 runs this season, while the most given up last season was 890 by the Colorado Rockies.

The Marlins have some young pitching that could keep them from losing 110 games, but the loss of Giancarlo Stanton for the foreseeable future has the worst offense in baseball grasping at straws. If Stanton returns in June and stays healthy, they should stay slightly “behind” the Astros for cellar domination.

9. Will Giancarlo Stanton be traded during the season?

Probably not. His value is nowhere near the level the Marlins are hoping to trade him at, given his potential 40-home run power and affordable contract. Even if he returns quickly from his hamstring injury and starts desecrating the center field statue in Marlins Park, the Marlins would need a “godfather offer” to move him, unlikely given his position, injury concerns and expected pay raise in the future.

10. Who are some other players who could be traded by July?

Houston could move pitcher Bud Norris, the Cubs could part with Scott Feldman, Scott Baker (if he ever pitches) and Matt Garza. David DeJesus would also be a cheap(er) acquisition for a team needing a weak-hitting outfielder. If the Angels and Blue Jays continue their poor play into June, Jason Vargas and Josh Johnson could depart from their respective clubs.

11. Can the Boston Red Sox hold on?

The Red Sox have already reached 30% of their 2012 win total in about 25% of the games played and are leading the AL East by 1.5 games over the New York Yankees. Mike Napoli is third in the MLB in RBI, Jacoby Ellsbury is leading the league in steals and David Ortiz is hitting .440 in the 13 games since returning from injury. Hot starts can be nothing more than small samples, but if Will Middlebrooks and Stephen Drew can find their stroke, the team certainly can keep pace with the rest of the division.

12. Will the Red Sox rotation challenge the Tigers for best in baseball?

Boston has the fifth best rotation ERA, with Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz and Ryan Dempster all showing marketable improvement over 2012. The starters are just three strikeouts behind the Tigers for best in baseball, and they have the third lowest batting average against. Command can be a concern going forward — they’ve allowed the most walks with 79 — but regression will only go so far if the mean has changed.

13. Who will win the National League East?

Despite the brilliance of Matt Harvey (and the power of John Buck), it’s a two team race between the Washington Nationals and the Atlanta Braves. Despite their hot start, the Braves are only two games up on Washington, despite a 5-2 record against their chief competitor. The Braves are hitting (only) home runs while the Nationals are hitting nothing (both are in the bottom half in batting average). Atlanta will get Brian McCann and Jason Heyward back soon, while Washington must figure out if there’s anything wrong with Stephen Strasburg. If Adam LaRoche and Ryan Zimmerman, they should win the division  If not, the Braves can stymie their northern opponents, so long as Heyward, Freddie Freeman, and BJ Upton produce.

14. Could the National League West send two teams to the postseason?

Ruling out potential outcomes in May should only reference the Cubs and World Series. The National League west is separated by just six games (the only division in which every team is consolidated that tightly), with the defending World Series winning San Francisco Giants at the top. A fast start by the Colorado Rockies should not be dismissed, though their fate is tied directly to the health of Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. The Los Angeles Dodgers have felt the wrath of massive injuries — the most recent ailment to Adrian Gonzalez is yet another in a long line of sunken costs — while the San Diego Padres simply don’t have the pitching, regardless of the dimensions of Petco Park. The Giants should play well enough to have a chance to repeat, while the Arizona Diamondbacks have a top 10 rotation that has gotten unlucky. If Arizona hits — they’re in the bottom half in on base and slugging percentage — they have a chance to contend for a playoff spot.

15. Can either the Milwaukee Brewers or Pittsburgh Pirates challenge for the National League Central?

The short answer is no, predicated on the assumption that the rosters will generally remain the same. Injuries and trades may alter any of the NL Central teams, though it should be noted that Milwaukee and Pittsburgh have little with which to make a blockbuster trade. The Brewers have the fourth worst ERA in baseball — the three teams below them have a combined record of 30-65. The Pirates have a good chance to finally finish above .500, but not enough pitching or offense to jump ahead of St. Louis or Cincinnati.

16. Who is the favorite to win the National League Cy Young award?

The current favorite is Adam Wainwright, finally fully healthy after Tommy John surgery before the 2011 season. He’s 4-2 with a 2.72 ERA, though a 1.91 FIP suggests he could see his ERA shrink further. He’s walking a batter every 18 innings, an unsustainable (but truly remarkable) number. Nothing else appears out of the ordinary — his strikeouts are slightly above his career average while his strand rate is acceptable. He will probably give up a few more home runs than he has so far, but he should still be in line for 16+ wins and an ERA around 3.00.

Matt Harvey and Clayton Kershaw are his closest competitors, but Harvey may be on an innings limit if the Mets struggle while Kershaw may be pitching for a team out of playoff contention by early September (which may impact some voters).

17. Who is the favorite to win the American League Cy Young award?

Right now, it has to be Yu Darvish, who is leading all of baseball in strikeouts by 15. He has helped keep the Texas Rangers atop the AL West with a 5-1 record and a 2.56 ERA. Command was an issue late last year, and he has walked 15 batters. But as long as the Rangers don’t run him into the ground — he threw 122 pitches in seven innings on Sunday — he can remain atop the leader board.

18. Who is the favorite to win the National League MVP?

Justin Upton has hit 12 home runs, nearly breaking the ISO metric in the process. His power has helped the Atlanta Braves to the NL East lead, something that may need to continue for Upton to get the individual recognition. While the NL race is less exciting than its AL counterpart, Joey Votto could challenge Upton if he can bat above .370 while Carlos Gonzalez can benefit from Coors Field on his way to his first MVP award.

19. Who is the favorite to win the American League MVP?

It’s still Miguel Cabrera, with everyone else a tier below. Yes, Carlos Santana could garner some votes if the Indians make the playoffs, while the same goes for Manny Machado and Evan Longoria (though defense isn’t valued much by baseball writers, if history is any indication). If the Yankees are able to weather the injury storm, Robinson Cano could easily take the crown.

20. Which team will finish with the best record in baseball?

The favorite before the season was the Washington Nationals, and while Bryce Harper is holding up his end of the bargain, it seems no one else is. They should still win at least 90 games given a likely improvement by their offense, but the best record is no longer a given. Instead, it will most likely be Detroit, led by the best 3-4 combo in baseball, not to mention the premier starting rotation. Whether or not that will translate into anything in the postseason remains to be seen.

 

Indicud Review – Kid Cudi’s Quest for Inner Peace

In what is now his fourth studio album, Scott Mescudi has become known for few things and appreciated for even fewer. The two primary characteristics are that he smokes weed and writes, records and sells music at a professional level. The two identifiers are often intertwined — his “big break” was the song ”Day ‘n’ Nite”, in which Mescudi classified himself as a “lonely stoner” — though these are far from the only personality traits.

Mescudi, who goes by the name Kid Cudi, is an actor, a music producer, and a talented rapper, who has won four Grammy Awards and been nominated for four more. He is just 29 years old, young for an established musician with four studio albums on his ledger.

Cudi has taken his affliction for marijuana as more than a personal identifier. It has seeped into his music, the paranoia, the irrational confidence and the constant mood swings. Cudi is more defiant than ever on Indicud, the new album that was scheduled to be released on April 23, though aggressive leaks pushed the release up by a week.

It is on this album — the follow up to the two Man on the Moon albums and WZRD, an album as forgettable as it is regrettable — that Mescudi attempts to solidify his place in rap’s pantheon. It is a worthwhile endeavor, but ultimately Indicud suffers from Mescudi’s inability to explore the motivations behind his feelings. At this stage in his career, expecting more may just be a fool’s errand.

The album begins in a predictably moody way, with an instrumental track labeled The Resurrection of Scott Mescudi. It is meant to symbolize far more than it states, a recurring element in Indicud. There is no overt theme, no spoken narrative, only an expression of Cudi’s supposed multifaceted self. This “resurrection” is more false bravado and anger than rebirth; Cudi’s career was never truly in dire straights so long as he continued to release music (that preferably sounded vaguely like Kid Cudi).

He follows this ominous ode with Unfuckwittable, which is exactly as it sounds. The hook is boastful, the verses melodic and somewhat introspective. It is the quintessential Kid Cudi track, substantive enough to elevate the album while not deriding the intended theme.

The album crescendos into Just What I Am, easily the standout track (and first single). Over his own self-produced beat, Mescudi reflects on his current status as an outsider in a very insular and lucrative field. He diagnoses his mental problems, accepts his anger issues and embraces his oddity. Again, the lyrics are not particularly deep, but the beat is pure magic, full of powerful synths that blend perfectly. Cudi gets an assist from King Chip, and the artist-formerly-known-as-Chip Tha Ripper doesn’t fail to disappoint, though he does invoke religion, only to prod it shortly after. Overall, this is the track worthy of pole position in selling the album.

Cudi hits all the prototypical check points in what passes as a rap album currently, with Young Lady taking the slot of “song about women”. The faster tempo doesn’t do him any favors, showing the subtle flaws in his delivery once the process is expedited. The track is rather bland, though the inclusion of Father John Misty on the guitar ensures that the beat is not as deficient as the lyrics.

Another proverbial check mark is King Wizard, highlighting Cudi’s apparent fascination with wizardry as casting a spell on his literal and virtual “haters”. The proclamation of greatness — especially at the expense of fallen rivals — will be an album staple from now until Detox, but again the beat shines more than the lyrics. Cudi is brooding just to brood, defiant because he suddenly feels an urge to defy. This is what happens when a rapper releases a rock album and it fails to sell (or grade well). The listeners may get an entire album of figurative, musical middle fingers.

This certainly is the case with Immortal, which sounds exactly like the name implies. The song begins with a quote from Billy Madison, explaining Cudi’s entire last few years in five simple words. While Father John Misty appeared earlier in the album, the obvious choice for alternative rock instrumental was MGMT, who collaborated with Mescudi on his (second) most famous song — The Pursuit of Happiness. Paying respect to his friends, Cudi loops a sample of MGMT’s Congratulations reverses it, and adds drums. It’s ambitious, if not totally coherent, but it at least fits the (tired) theme.

And then Solo Dolo Part II enters the stream of consciousness that defines Cudi’s drug use. His affection for marijuana is well-documented, mostly by his own accord in verse. In the first verse here he openly exclaims, “Yes, I am on acid,” a welcome admission of little consequence. But the beat seems better suited for Kendrick Lamar, who blesses the track with the hook and a verse of his own. His staccato flow meshes perfectly, and offers more than the “thank yous” uttered by Cudi.

If “Young Lady” wasn’t enough, Cudi continues the lyrical onslaught on the fairer sex with Girls, featuring an infectious hook and little else. A guest verse by Too $hort proves that the past decade of irrelevance is warranted, as his lyrics are childish and cadence cheesy. It’s just a shame that this hook didn’t make its way to a better rapper.

What follows is labeled as New York City Rage Fest, which apparently consists of two minutes of a club-style instrumental. Its placement is as odd as its intentions, though it at least hearkens back to a time when Cudi was more likely to dance (and leave his friends behind).

The track that will likely get the most attention — and radio play — is Red Eye, an adventurous ode to new beginnings, destinations and adventures. The only perplexing part is that the track not only features Haim — a newer, female-only music group — but Cudi is relegated to the bridge. The fact that the two are label mates may serve as the reason for the collaboration, and it should be noted that Cudi’s decision to play second fiddle is refreshing given the egos involved. The beautiful harmonies and simplistic, relatable content will ensure some popularity, though Cudi’s minimal appearance on the song may be difficult to understand if it does actually reach Top 40 radio.

Oddly, Cudi immediately slows the tempo, as Mad Soler hits all the right notes. It deploys into his conscious, the public’s perception and his inability to change. The main issue is that it just seems lazy. This is not the first time Cudi has made this song, even on this album!

How Beez is received depends entirely on the reception of RZA, who virtually owns the track. Cudi appears briefly on the hook, but RZA is left to his own devices. They work admirably, but this is already the third track that feels hijacked by a different artist.

Cudi has not been shy about his love for Cleveland, especially those that helped him become extremely successful. He recruits King Chip again (and for some reason A$AP Rocky) for Brothers, another in the long line of song titles that were scribbled down seconds before the deadline. The beat fits Chip perfectly, and A$AP excels in the half-measures. It may be too late to expect more substance, more introspection, but Cudi at least provides adequate surface level music.

Burn Baby Burn is a rare instance when Mescudi elevates his flow successfully. The song is one-note, a thinly veiled “freestyle” that never pauses. Cudi scratches the surface, but intentionally bypasses the opportunity to prod deeper. He discusses cocaine, his family’s lack of support, and Cleveland. No, he didn’t make the same track and come up with seventeen different names for it.

If “Burn Baby Burn” failed to deliver, Lord of the Sad and Lonely would spectacularly disappoint as well. It’s as if Kid Cudi decided to completely veer in a different direction, the Sweat/Suit of 2013. This has been a completely different album after the brief instrumental stuck in the middle, seemingly more and more intentional. The result is that the album feels disjointed, a compilation that sets up a future admission of bipolar disorder. This is not new territory, but it would have made much more sense if the two halves were reversed.

Only it’s never that easy with Cudi, as Cold Blooded reintroduces the same egotistical and invincible tendencies of first 45 minutes of Indicud. At this point in the album — this is the 16th of 18 tracks, though three are only instrumentals — the tone is shallow.

If “Red Eye” isn’t the most talked about track on the album, it will surely be Afterwards, which features Michael Bolton. The track is nine minutes long, and while Bolton’s presence is admittedly an interesting and creative choice, his inclusion adds very little to the table. He says all of ten or fifteen words, he mumbles and then repeats. It seems that Cudi simply wanted him as an ode to his youth rather than showcasing Bolton’s talents. It’s an unfortunately predictable way to end the album.

There is also The Flight of the Moon Man, another instrumental track that acts as Indicud‘s version of a skit. Cudi’s ability to produce — a role he assumed for most of the album — has its advantages, but showing off for the sake of showing off does little to enhance the music.

*     *     *     *     *

OVERALL: Kid Cudi’s fourth studio album carries little of the emotional weight of the first two, and is not nearly as ambitious as WZRD. With Indicud, it seems that Scott Mescudi has attempted to exercise his demons by blaming everyone else, or at least invasive substances. In reality, Cudi is a talented producer who understands the beauty of simplicity, though rarely rises to the occasion when the beat and hook demand it. Indicud has its moments, but it suffers from the weight of Cudi’s ego, which fails to embrace his mistakes more than acknowledging them.

Standout Tracks: Unfuckwittable, Just What I Am, Solo Dolo Part II, Red Eye, Beez

Grade: B